I am connected and yet:
The Trading Auto Signal has been a member since 16.03.2016. If you missed the signal, it is still possible to place an order at this time.
=> Sale of Members on NYSE Arca.
=> Purchase of Members on NYSE Arca.
"All paying members (registered before March 12, 2016) will be able to benefit from this new tool for free until the end of their current subscription (no renewal after March 12, 2016)."
And I answered the questions on March 13th or 14th.
I wonder if the performance displayed above on the auto trading signal is net of management fees. There are the ETF purchase fees that lower the performance.
Hello Jerome,
I wonder if you created the auto trading signal. How do you know when to buy or sell the SP 500. How do you make the decision to buy or sell? Graphical analysis, technical?
I read your email where you seriously consider using leverage, the idea seems good to me given your results. Are the brokerage fees (or others if there are any) for ETFs with leverage the same as without?
Can you explain to me in more detail how you do this?
I am very tempted by auto signal trading given the return/risk/time spent. I find the system quite simple to set up while working (still for the moment!!!) and having a family life. You just need to have enough funds to open an account with IB (25000$ minimum, I think). I just want to know what I am getting into, what the risks are, where the buy signal comes from, etc.
Hello Bertrand
yes I created the signal. It took me a year between design, development, testing and putting it into production. I'm not going to give away the secrets of how it works, but it's based on a good dose of common sense and logic, a lot of automation and server-based analysis, a hint of observation of the past and even a little bit of madness 😉
Leveraged ETF fees are the same for brokerage, however the management fees for the ETF itself are a bit higher (0.9% with leverage vs. 0.1% for SPY). This is not really a problem since the usage period of these ETFs is very short compared to SPY. More info on fees here: http://www.dividendes.ch/?page_id=18584
For IB in theory a Reg T margin account is only available from 25,000 USD, but I was able to open one with less than 20,0000 by opening a cash account and then transforming it into a margin account.
Thank you for your reply.
Congratulations on finding this system which seems to work well.
Several small remarks: you do not protect your capital by an automatic sell order programmed during the purchase (or sale) (for example as soon as you have 1% of loss). You therefore have 2 or 3 fairly significant losses (2 or 3%, without leverage, it can work, but with ouch!!)
ETF fees are in %. Are the 0.9 % fixed, or monthly?
To limit these costs, we can short sell the SPY with only 0.6% of costs. Is IB flexible in managing short sales? Does IB sell our position as soon as we have 3 dollars of excess?
At the top of this page, it seems to me that certain elements have changed (I'm repeating your lines below):
Real Trading Statistics
(in USD since 22.09.2015 via Interactive Brokers)
Current position: 0.33 %
Winning trades: 71 % (backtest over 22 years, before 22.09.2015: 72 %)
Number of trades per year: 48 (backtest over 22 years, before 22.09.2015: 50)
Profit Factor: 2.86 % (backtest over 22 years, before 22.09.2015: 2.9)
Maximum loss: 4.05 % (backtest over 22 years, before 22.09.2015: 13.4 %)
Annual performance: 35.68 % (backtest over 22 years, before 22.09.2015: 84 %)
Cumulative performance: 30.58 % (in CHF: 27.34 % / in EUR: 27.82 %)
The maximum loss over 22 years increased to 13.4% and the annual performance over 22 years to 84%.
Is this due to the consideration of leverage?
Do you plan to put a firewall in place to limit the loss to an amount lower than 13.4%?
Sorry to take up your time with all these questions, but they are important to me and will help me decide whether to invest in your method.
hello again
so indeed there is no stop loss with the signal. I tried for a very long time to make it work with it, but my tests never gave me good results. Either the risk remained low, but the profitability was bad, or the opposite. In the end I was losing every time compared to the situation where I let the signal run on its own. So I decided to let it work like that. Afterwards, everyone is free if they wish to set a stop loss at a certain percentage, depending on their risk appetite, to exit the position, and to wait for the next signal to take the opposite position. It should also be noted that most of the time we are invested in SPY (long or short), without leverage. It is the underlying of a blue chip index, so it is not too volatile. It is only when leverage is used, that is to say rarely, that it becomes a little hotter. But even in this case the worst loss in 22 years of backtesting was 13%. So of course there may be a higher loss one day, but the probability is low and above all, as far as I am concerned, I am ready to assume it if the signal generates such a good profitability. For those who are too scared, well they can only trade SPY (long and short, without leverage). The annual profitability in backtest is still more than 36%.
Let us also note, as I point out in the presentation of the TAS that this instrument is primarily intended to complement the various strategies of growing dividends. You can of course only trade ETFs, but you deprive yourself of a good tool for taking a position or exiting growing dividends. Currently the "ETF" part of the signal represents less than 16% of my portfolio. So for me it is above all a hedging instrument and helps to achieve absolute performance, whatever the market conditions. The risk is therefore also limited compared to the proportion used in the asset allocation.
Regarding ETF management fees, they are intrinsic to the ETF price and are therefore not charged to you. The 0.9% represents the annual share that the manager uses to do his job and which is therefore taken directly from the price.
Indeed, to limit costs, if you can short with your broker, like with Interactive Brokers, you should short sell SPY rather than buy SH, as mentioned here: http://www.dividendes.ch/?page_id=18584
I have never had a margin call or forced sale with my Interactive Brokers Reg T account due to short positions. It should be noted that I do not use margin.
The backtest statistics you cite have indeed evolved because of the consideration of the leverage effect during certain periods.
No, I'm not going to put a firewall to limit losses below 13%, for the reasons mentioned above. Again, everyone is free to do so if they want to.
There you go, I hope I was clear enough in my explanations 😉
guyem
Hello Jerome,
I am interested in the TAS and I have a few questions before signing a contract (I have already had an IB account for a few years for the options)
– When can we interrupt the annual subscription with monthly payment? during the year? at the end of the year? (calendar or anniversary?)
– and finally, you say: “Currently the “ETF” part of the signal represents less than 16% of my portfolio. So for me it is above all a hedging instrument”
Do you give an indication of money management somewhere, precisely for the coverage?
There you go, thanks for your reply.
Good day
Emmanuel
Hi
Trading access is a monthly subscription. You can stop it whenever you want and you will still be able to benefit from it until the end of the month already paid.
It is a hedging and absolute performance instrument. I do not give an indication of MM because it is specific to the investments and the risk propensity of each person.
Hello Jerome, thank you for your site. I am a member but not yet subscribed to TAS. Regarding your transaction history on TAS, you enter the Signal date but not the exit date, how do you calculate the gain or loss, I tried to see on the graph but I don't see too much? What is the size of your positions, of your money management? Thank you for your answers. Eric B.
Hello
The exit date corresponds to the entry date of the next signal. A position is taken when the market opens following the signal. See column headings.
The distribution of positions can be found here: http://www.dividendes.ch/positions-ouvertes/
Good evening 😉
Hello Jerome, I must not have been very clear in my question. I understood the entry date well, but how do you calculate the gain because we do not see an exit date. We do not see on the table if the position is in progress or closed. The link (in your answer) on the distribution indicates for the strategies but not for the TAS. I wanted to know in fact, for the TAS, if when you take a bullish position, you close your bearish position (SH closed then SPY open) or can you take both at the same time.
Hello, no the question was clear, apparently it was me who wasn't 🙂
So no, above all we never take both positions at the same time! That would be a contradiction.
The signal is either bullish or bearish relative to the market.
If it is bullish we buy SPY, if it is bearish we buy an SH, or better, if we can, we short SPY.
Each time we obviously close our previous position.
I advise you to read in detail the following two pages which explain everything in more detail: http://www.dividendes.ch/2016/03/trading-auto-signal/ http://www.dividendes.ch/utiliser-interactive-brokers-avec-le-trading-auto-signal/
So as I said, the exit date of a position always corresponds to the entry date of the next signal.
That's why the release date is not indicated, you can find it on the line above. Please note: non-members cannot see transactions from the last 30 days.
The gain that is displayed in the right column corresponds to the previous trade gain, as indicated in the column heading.
The current gain is displayed at the top, in the statistics.
Finally for the link already mentioned in my last comment, it gives the distributions of all strategies, including the TAS which appears in the table under TAS – Signal.
I hope this time it's clearer 😉
Hello Jerome, I have taken out a TAS subscription since (I think) August 25, 2016, but I have not received any emails from your site, except for the rating change signals (for which I am subscribed as a member until the end of the year), is this normal? And if I receive an email, from which address should it come, "dividend.ch" like the one for the member subscription? Thanks for the answers. Have a nice day. Eric
Hi
This is normal, the signal has not moved since then as you can see at the top of this page.
The email comes from dividendes.ch like the rating change.
Hello, since we place the sell order before the market opens, how do we know how much to sell? What type of order do we use? This is the first time I place this type of order on the market. Thank you for your answer. Bertrand Ginod
being a French resident (and therefore taxed on capital gains), I was wondering if you plan to run your system on a tracker eligible for the PEA (CAC 40 trackers for example)?
Sincerely
hello
rather no. I have already thought about it, for other indices, Nasdaq, SMI, CAC, but I prefer to focus on an index that the signal controls well (one year of testing and putting into production).
Since the indices are quite correlated, I think we can also try to take a position on another index by following the signal. The results will certainly be less good, but still not totally off the mark.
If one day I have time (when I am a rentier at 100%), perhaps then I will launch signals on other indices.
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I am connected and yet:
The Trading Auto Signal has been a member since 16.03.2016. If you missed the signal, it is still possible to place an order at this time.
=> Sale of Members on NYSE Arca.
=> Purchase of Members on NYSE Arca.
?!
You need the Trading subscription in addition, I think.
Hello
You just need the trading subscription
"All paying members (registered before March 12, 2016) will be able to benefit from this new tool for free until the end of their current subscription (no renewal after March 12, 2016)."
And I answered the questions on March 13th or 14th.
Good morning,
Is there a way to trade stocks with Degiro?
I have my answer in the explanation article, sorry :)
Good morning,
I wonder if the performance displayed above on the auto trading signal is net of management fees. There are the ETF purchase fees that lower the performance.
Thank you for your response regarding this point.
Sincerely
bertrand
Hello, yes it is net of fees. According to rates applied by Interactive Brokers.
Hello Jerome,
I wonder if you created the auto trading signal. How do you know when to buy or sell the SP 500. How do you make the decision to buy or sell? Graphical analysis, technical?
I read your email where you seriously consider using leverage, the idea seems good to me given your results. Are the brokerage fees (or others if there are any) for ETFs with leverage the same as without?
Can you explain to me in more detail how you do this?
I am very tempted by auto signal trading given the return/risk/time spent. I find the system quite simple to set up while working (still for the moment!!!) and having a family life. You just need to have enough funds to open an account with IB (25000$ minimum, I think). I just want to know what I am getting into, what the risks are, where the buy signal comes from, etc.
Thanks in advance
bertrand GINOD
Hello Bertrand
yes I created the signal. It took me a year between design, development, testing and putting it into production. I'm not going to give away the secrets of how it works, but it's based on a good dose of common sense and logic, a lot of automation and server-based analysis, a hint of observation of the past and even a little bit of madness 😉
Leveraged ETF fees are the same for brokerage, however the management fees for the ETF itself are a bit higher (0.9% with leverage vs. 0.1% for SPY). This is not really a problem since the usage period of these ETFs is very short compared to SPY. More info on fees here: http://www.dividendes.ch/?page_id=18584
For IB in theory a Reg T margin account is only available from 25,000 USD, but I was able to open one with less than 20,0000 by opening a cash account and then transforming it into a margin account.
Good morning,
Thank you for your reply.
Congratulations on finding this system which seems to work well.
Several small remarks: you do not protect your capital by an automatic sell order programmed during the purchase (or sale) (for example as soon as you have 1% of loss). You therefore have 2 or 3 fairly significant losses (2 or 3%, without leverage, it can work, but with ouch!!)
ETF fees are in %. Are the 0.9 % fixed, or monthly?
To limit these costs, we can short sell the SPY with only 0.6% of costs. Is IB flexible in managing short sales? Does IB sell our position as soon as we have 3 dollars of excess?
At the top of this page, it seems to me that certain elements have changed (I'm repeating your lines below):
Real Trading Statistics
(in USD since 22.09.2015 via Interactive Brokers)
Current position: 0.33 %
Winning trades: 71 % (backtest over 22 years, before 22.09.2015: 72 %)
Number of trades per year: 48 (backtest over 22 years, before 22.09.2015: 50)
Profit Factor: 2.86 % (backtest over 22 years, before 22.09.2015: 2.9)
Maximum loss: 4.05 % (backtest over 22 years, before 22.09.2015: 13.4 %)
Annual performance: 35.68 % (backtest over 22 years, before 22.09.2015: 84 %)
Cumulative performance: 30.58 % (in CHF: 27.34 % / in EUR: 27.82 %)
The maximum loss over 22 years increased to 13.4% and the annual performance over 22 years to 84%.
Is this due to the consideration of leverage?
Do you plan to put a firewall in place to limit the loss to an amount lower than 13.4%?
Sorry to take up your time with all these questions, but they are important to me and will help me decide whether to invest in your method.
Sincerely
Bertrand GINOD
hello again
so indeed there is no stop loss with the signal. I tried for a very long time to make it work with it, but my tests never gave me good results. Either the risk remained low, but the profitability was bad, or the opposite. In the end I was losing every time compared to the situation where I let the signal run on its own. So I decided to let it work like that. Afterwards, everyone is free if they wish to set a stop loss at a certain percentage, depending on their risk appetite, to exit the position, and to wait for the next signal to take the opposite position. It should also be noted that most of the time we are invested in SPY (long or short), without leverage. It is the underlying of a blue chip index, so it is not too volatile. It is only when leverage is used, that is to say rarely, that it becomes a little hotter. But even in this case the worst loss in 22 years of backtesting was 13%. So of course there may be a higher loss one day, but the probability is low and above all, as far as I am concerned, I am ready to assume it if the signal generates such a good profitability. For those who are too scared, well they can only trade SPY (long and short, without leverage). The annual profitability in backtest is still more than 36%.
Let us also note, as I point out in the presentation of the TAS that this instrument is primarily intended to complement the various strategies of growing dividends. You can of course only trade ETFs, but you deprive yourself of a good tool for taking a position or exiting growing dividends. Currently the "ETF" part of the signal represents less than 16% of my portfolio. So for me it is above all a hedging instrument and helps to achieve absolute performance, whatever the market conditions. The risk is therefore also limited compared to the proportion used in the asset allocation.
Regarding ETF management fees, they are intrinsic to the ETF price and are therefore not charged to you. The 0.9% represents the annual share that the manager uses to do his job and which is therefore taken directly from the price.
Indeed, to limit costs, if you can short with your broker, like with Interactive Brokers, you should short sell SPY rather than buy SH, as mentioned here:
http://www.dividendes.ch/?page_id=18584
I have never had a margin call or forced sale with my Interactive Brokers Reg T account due to short positions. It should be noted that I do not use margin.
The backtest statistics you cite have indeed evolved because of the consideration of the leverage effect during certain periods.
No, I'm not going to put a firewall to limit losses below 13%, for the reasons mentioned above. Again, everyone is free to do so if they want to.
There you go, I hope I was clear enough in my explanations 😉
Hello Jerome,
I am interested in the TAS and I have a few questions before signing a contract (I have already had an IB account for a few years for the options)
– When can we interrupt the annual subscription with monthly payment? during the year? at the end of the year? (calendar or anniversary?)
– and finally, you say: “Currently the “ETF” part of the signal represents less than 16% of my portfolio. So for me it is above all a hedging instrument”
Do you give an indication of money management somewhere, precisely for the coverage?
There you go, thanks for your reply.
Good day
Emmanuel
Hi
Trading access is a monthly subscription. You can stop it whenever you want and you will still be able to benefit from it until the end of the month already paid.
It is a hedging and absolute performance instrument. I do not give an indication of MM because it is specific to the investments and the risk propensity of each person.
Hello Jerome, thank you for your site. I am a member but not yet subscribed to TAS. Regarding your transaction history on TAS, you enter the Signal date but not the exit date, how do you calculate the gain or loss, I tried to see on the graph but I don't see too much? What is the size of your positions, of your money management? Thank you for your answers. Eric B.
Hello
The exit date corresponds to the entry date of the next signal. A position is taken when the market opens following the signal. See column headings.
The distribution of positions can be found here: http://www.dividendes.ch/positions-ouvertes/
Good evening 😉
Hello Jerome, I must not have been very clear in my question. I understood the entry date well, but how do you calculate the gain because we do not see an exit date. We do not see on the table if the position is in progress or closed. The link (in your answer) on the distribution indicates for the strategies but not for the TAS. I wanted to know in fact, for the TAS, if when you take a bullish position, you close your bearish position (SH closed then SPY open) or can you take both at the same time.
Hello, no the question was clear, apparently it was me who wasn't 🙂
So no, above all we never take both positions at the same time! That would be a contradiction.
The signal is either bullish or bearish relative to the market.
If it is bullish we buy SPY, if it is bearish we buy an SH, or better, if we can, we short SPY.
Each time we obviously close our previous position.
I advise you to read in detail the following two pages which explain everything in more detail:
http://www.dividendes.ch/2016/03/trading-auto-signal/
http://www.dividendes.ch/utiliser-interactive-brokers-avec-le-trading-auto-signal/
So as I said, the exit date of a position always corresponds to the entry date of the next signal.
That's why the release date is not indicated, you can find it on the line above.
Please note: non-members cannot see transactions from the last 30 days.
The gain that is displayed in the right column corresponds to the previous trade gain, as indicated in the column heading.
The current gain is displayed at the top, in the statistics.
Finally for the link already mentioned in my last comment, it gives the distributions of all strategies, including the TAS which appears in the table under TAS – Signal.
I hope this time it's clearer 😉
Jerome, it's very clear!!! Thank you for your time and explanations. I'm going to test your TAS!!!
Perfect☺
Hello Jerome, I have taken out a TAS subscription since (I think) August 25, 2016, but I have not received any emails from your site, except for the rating change signals (for which I am subscribed as a member until the end of the year), is this normal? And if I receive an email, from which address should it come, "dividend.ch" like the one for the member subscription? Thanks for the answers. Have a nice day. Eric
Hi
This is normal, the signal has not moved since then as you can see at the top of this page.
The email comes from dividendes.ch like the rating change.
Hello, since we place the sell order before the market opens, how do we know how much to sell? What type of order do we use? This is the first time I place this type of order on the market. Thank you for your answer. Bertrand Ginod
Hello, you have to sell at the opening, therefore at the market price.
OK thanks
Good morning,
being a French resident (and therefore taxed on capital gains), I was wondering if you plan to run your system on a tracker eligible for the PEA (CAC 40 trackers for example)?
Sincerely
hello
rather no. I have already thought about it, for other indices, Nasdaq, SMI, CAC, but I prefer to focus on an index that the signal controls well (one year of testing and putting into production).
Since the indices are quite correlated, I think we can also try to take a position on another index by following the signal. The results will certainly be less good, but still not totally off the mark.
If one day I have time (when I am a rentier at 100%), perhaps then I will launch signals on other indices.