Portfolios: situation as of 01.04.2025

"The United States is on the verge of a comeback the likes of which the world has never seen and may never see again."Trump before Congress, March 4, 2025)

The S&P 500 just recorded its worst month since 2022, with a loss of -7.49% (in CHF). We hope the United States won't experience this kind of strong comeback for a while.

The good news is that the action Tesla keeps falling, stripping Musk of his many billions. When this overrated stock drops another fivefold, I might consider buying some. Or not.

It's actually quite funny to hear the DOGE leader talk about a Ponzi scheme regarding US social security when he actually created his fortune on a pyramid scheme, thanks to the influx of cash from Tesla's pigeon shareholders.

On these beautiful words, we will take stock of this very particular month of March by trying to see things a little more clearly, if possible.

Past month's performance (portfolios and benchmarks - in CHF)

THE Determinant portfolio concludes this month of February with a loss of -1.04% (in CHF). The PP 2.x This time, the result is less good, with -1.69%. This difference is explained by the particularly resilient nature of the PFD, thanks to some of its strategies, as we will see later.

Although showing red figures, our two portfolios achieved results significantly higher than all of our benchmarks, thanks to their defensive virtues.

• Wallets :
  • Determinant portfolio : -1.04%
  • PP 2.x : -1.69%
• Benchmarks :
  • MSCI Switzerland: -1.91%
  • S&P 500: -7.49%
  • VT : -5.47%
  • 60/40 "Boglehead : -3.58%

Key portfolio strategies (past month - in CHF)

• Blue Chips: -1.66%
• Micro Caps: -12.29%
• Trading Auto Signal: 0.39%
• Gold: 7.23%
• Swiss bonds: -1.31%
• Real estate Swiss: 1.08%
• Long / Short: -0.5%

THE Blue Chips held up quite well, despite their strong American component. It must be said that the entire strategy was transferred to cash during the month, which helped limit costs.

On the other hand, the Micro Caps are disappointing for the third consecutive month. In fact, if I'm not mistaken, this is the worst monthly performance of this strategy since I started using it. I wondered last month if we were simply seeing a pendulum effect, but I increasingly have the impression that the machine is seized up because of Trump's policies (if you can call them policies).

Microcaps are more reactive than other companies, and investors are currently avoiding risk in favor of stocks considered safer. Be careful, because: as I mentioned recently, Micro Caps can be a leading indicator of what's coming to the market as a whole. They tend to react faster and stronger, but also to recover earlier and well beyond other stocks.

The US component of the Micro Caps strategy has been heavily dominated so far, which has weighed on results. Fortunately, European stocks have performed significantly better. This approach needs time to adjust to these new realities (it is already doing so).

THE Trading Auto Signal is doing very well, especially when compared to its benchmark index, the S&P 500 (0.39% vs. -7.49%). This approach has sensed the coming storm particularly well by quickly taking shelter.

This is also the case for gold which continues its very good run. Not only is gold an asset in troubled times, but it also undoubtedly benefits from structural support, against a persistent backdrop of challenges to the dollar's hegemony. Trump, with his simplistic belief that international trade is a zero-sum game, is driving countries around the world away from the United States (and therefore the dollar).

L'Swiss real estate also had a good month, once again. The introduction of this strategy continues to benefit the entire PF. Property is a bit like gold, it's tangible and reassuring in these times. Add to that the favorable context for Swiss real estate, thanks to the increasingly accommodating policy of the Bank Nationale Suisse, which has just lowered its key interest rate once again, from 0.5 to 0.25%. This contrasts sharply with the United States, where the Fed has maintained its rate and inflation is rising again, even before Trump's tariffs take effect.

THE Swiss bonds are still lagging behind for the moment, but this is a very minority position.

The new strategy Long/Short also held up quite well compared to the market as a whole, particularly compared to its benchmark, the S&P 500. Obviously, it was the "Short" part that came out on top and managed to minimize the overall losses.

Finally, it should be noted that the portfolio currently contains more than a third of cash. This allows the company to weather the current storm more calmly and seize opportunities as they arise.

Determinant portfolio (year-to-date - in CHF)

Since the beginning of this year, the determining portfolio maintains a slightly positive result, with 1.14% in CHF. This is less good than the MSCI Switzerland (9.84%), which had performed well in January and February, thanks to a rebound, following a disappointing 2024. But it is significantly better than the S&P 500, which has posted a loss of -6.68% in CHF since the beginning of the year.

Determinant portfolio (since launch - in CHF)

The key portfolio in in its new configuration since October 2024shows the following results (in Swiss francs):

• Annualized performance (%): 13.06 (MSCI Switzerland: 10.08)
• Max Drawdown (%): -3.84 (MSCI Switzerland: -7.99)
• Standard deviation (%): 9.89 (MSCI Switzerland: 10.19)
• Sharpe ratio: 1.04 (MSCI Switzerland: 0.89)
• Correlation with MSCI Switzerland: 0.30