Portfolios: situation at 01.03.2025

THE Determinant portfolio concludes February with a tiny gain of 0.05% (in CHF). As in the previous month, the PP 2.x achieves a better result, with 0.60%.

Past month's performance (portfolios and benchmarks - in CHF)

• Wallets :
  • Determinant portfolio : 0.05%
  • PP 2.x : 0.60%
• Benchmarks :
  • MSCI Switzerland: 3.45%
  • S&P 500: -2.13%
  • VT : -1.28%
  • 60/40 "Boglehead : -0.02%

Over the past month, our two portfolios have remained behind the MSCI Switzerland, which is still benefiting from a catch-up effect. However, they outperformed international benchmarks, some quite significantly, which is gratifying and demonstrates their resilient nature.

THE determining portfolio, as we will see later, was once again heavily affected by Micro Caps. This explains why it did not manage to achieve as good a result as the PP 2.x and the MSCI Switzerland.

It's also worth noting that it currently has a high cash content (almost 25%). This is certainly a good thing these days, but it also explains why it's not taking off as much as the PP 2.x and MSCI Switzerland.

As the saying goes: "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush". In the long term, I never think like that, but at the moment there are big dark clouds hanging over our heads and I like to cover my back.

Key portfolio strategies (past month - in CHF)

• Blue Chips: 1.60%
• Micro Caps: -6.14%
• Trading Auto Signal: 0.80%
• Gold: 0.94%
• Swiss bonds: -0.26%
• Real estate Swiss: 3.31%

The Blue Chips performed very well, despite the sharp drop in the US market, thanks to their defensive virtues.

Micro Caps, on the other hand, disappointed for the second month running. It's still too early to say whether we're witnessing a simple pendulum effect (after a crazy 2024) or whether other forces are at play, notably geopolitical. It seems to me that the machine is currently seized up, not to say biased. The current turmoil in the USA and around the world is creating a great deal of uncertainty. So we need to remain vigilant and rely on PF's other strengths and assets, which are there precisely for this kind of situation.

Speaking of which, Auto Signal Trading is doing very well, especially when compared to its benchmark, the S&P 500 (0.8% vs. -2.13%).

This is also the case for gold, which is continuing its upward trend, even if the end of the month was more complicated. I mentioned uncertainty earlier. Gold loves that.

Swiss real estate also had a superb February. The recent introduction of this strategy is good for the PF as a whole. Stone is a bit like gold, it's tangible. At the moment, we need reference points.

Finally, Swiss bonds are lagging a little behind for the time being, but this is a very minority position.

Portfolio statistics

The key portfolio in in its new configuration since October 2024shows the following results (in Swiss francs):

• Annualized performance (%): 19.06 (MSCI Switzerland: 17.85)
• Max Drawdown (%) : -2.84 (MSCI Switzerland: -7.99)
• Standard deviation (%): 10.66 (MSCI Switzerland: 10.79)
• Sharpe ratio: 1.57 (MSCI Switzerland: 1.16)
• Correlation with MSCI Switzerland: 0.33

Long/Short strategy

As mentioned recentlyI plan to introduce this strategy gradually from March onwards. As this approach is much more volatile than the others, it will represent only a small portion of the determining portfolio. I do not recommend it to novice investors.