Determinant portfolio: situation as of 01.08.2023

As in recent months, the Swiss franc is continuing its strong upward trend. This time, it has gained a whopping 3% against the dollar in just one month. Since the beginning of the year, our national currency has left the greenback at nearly 6% behind it and the yen at over 13%. We have already reached historical records against the yen and the euro, but not yet against the dollar (although at this rate it should not be long now).

Under these conditions, an investor residing in Switzerland will have a hard time competing with his counterparts from other countries. To give an image, if you know the bag test in Koh Lanta, it is a bit like having loaded him with 20 kg to complete his race, while the others only carry 3 kg. This forces him to achieve an incredible performance, just to hope to hold the road.

 

Monthly performance in CHF

Fortunately, despite these unfavourable conditions, the portfolio once again held up well last month. While The MSCI Switzerland index lagged behind with +0.2%, practically on a par with its American counterpart (+0.3%), the determining portfolio progressed nicely, at +1.2%. 

The strategies

In detail, here is the performance of the PF and each of its strategies:

Like last month, the QVM strategy contributed strongly to the overall result, with a very nice performance. The Blue Chips Strategy  lagged a little further behind, helped little by the decline in the greenback. Trading Auto Signal has fared much better, continuing to progress very steadily, making nice gains, over relatively short exposure times and low volatility, which is very appreciable. Finally, the ETFs managed in adaptive allocation, like last month, ended with a loss. Here too, the weakness of the dollar did not help.

We note once again that these four strategies complement each other well. When some lag behind, the others take over. This alternation of strategies is very appreciable, since it ensures gains that are as stable as possible and limits overall volatility.

Year-to-date performance in CHF

This gives us a performance in CHF since the beginning of the year of 8.5% for the determining PF, with a volatility of 8%. It is thus increasingly catching up on the delay accumulated at the beginning of the year vis-à-vis the MSCI Switzerland (which stands at 9.6%). However, it remains quite far behind the S&P 500 (which displays a nice performance of 13.7%).

Determinant portfolio (01.01.2023-31.07.2023)

Portfolio (2010-2022)

Have a great summer everyone.