Clash of Civilizations and the Decline of the West

Since the invasion of Ukraine, we have heard more and more talk of a clash of civilizations and a supposed decline of the West (at least in the eyes of the other camp). It is a bit like trying to sell us an exclusively bipolar world, with the evil capitalists at the end of their tether on one side and the good dynamic (ex-)socialists on the other. All this is very reductive and reflects a totally outdated vision.

The world is not black or white. It is made up of 324 countries, each with its own history, culture and politics. Even within these entities, the diversity is enormous. Reducing the world to the USA (+ Europe) on the one hand and China (+ Russia) on the other is at best ignorant, at worst Machiavellian. It is also a sign of the complacency and disdain on the part of certain "big powers" towards all other nations, especially the smaller ones.

If someone asks me where I come from, I answer that I am from Valais. That is what defines me best in terms of origins, with all that that implies. Good and bad sides. For many of us, it is the same. The region where we grew up and/or lived the most shapes us, much more than a country or any other supranational entity. So, yes, I also feel a little Swiss and even a little European. Beyond that, however, it becomes more and more abstract. Western? Frankly, this term seems like a real catch-all to me. I don't have much in common with an American in any case. I certainly have more in common with the Slavs. And not only for vodka.

When some autocrats speak of the decline of the West, we should first know what they consider to be Western and, above all, what they mean by decline. Are they speaking of decadent morals, taking as an image, for example, Conchita Wurst, "the european man who is a bearded woman". I am not a big fan of this singer(s) or woke culture in general, but that is not the point. It is not because a culture lets its minorities express themselves that it is decadent, quite the contrary.

A number of indicators appear in the literature to explain the decline or expansion of civilizations. In particular, we find:

• the fertility rate (the higher it is, the more the civilization is expanding)
• the mortality rate (famines, epidemics and poor hygiene conditions increase the mortality rate and contribute to the decline of a civilization)
• the distribution of wealth (too much concentration of wealth encourages social conflicts and hinders economic growth)
• economic growth (allows civilization to prosper)
• the ratio of men to women (the higher it is, the more a civilization becomes radicalized and violent, which contributes to its decline)
• the Global Peace Index (wars are one of the causes of the decline of civilizations, conversely pacifism allows them to persist)
• the World Risk Index (natural disasters also sometimes explain the decline of civilizations)

Let's see what this gives for five countries, two in the so-called "Eastern" camp (China and Russia), three in the so-called "Western" camp (USA, France and Switzerland):

Of the seven criteria considered, Russia comes out very poorly rated, with four of them (fertility, mortality, wealth distribution and pacifism). China comes just after in the ranking of the worst off, with a very high proportion of men, because of abortions favoring boys. It also has many natural risks. On the other hand, it does much better with mortality and growth rates and also quite well with wealth distribution. Conversely, France is very well rated on most criteria, except economic growth, and, to a lesser extent, the mortality rate. Switzerland does not do too badly, except for the fertility rate. The USA is average everywhere.

In light of this picture, we cannot say in any case that the West is decadent. There is also no clear general divide between China, the USA, France or Switzerland. They all have qualities/faults, or are average everywhere. On the other hand, several indicators of Russia raise a fair amount of questions, in particular the Global Peace Index and the distribution of wealth. Nearly 60% of the latter are in the hands of 1% the richest! To think that this country was still communist a few decades earlier...

Russian Foreign Minister S. Lavrov recently announced the advent of a new "more just and democratic" world order. For the moment, with the invasion of Ukraine, exactly the opposite is happening: a criminal and fascist world disorder. In any case, his outdated vision does not inspire dreams. The figures for Russia above give anything but the image of a just and democratic country. When bombs are dropped on maternity hospitals or ICRC premises, one is not really setting an example of a civilized nation either.