Here we are. After months of waiting, if not years, it only took a spark to set the powder alight. Or rather a microbe. A small virus of nothing at all and boom, the world explodes. What was worth 100 dollars a week ago is already worth only 90 today and this is certainly just the beginning. In a few days this famous virus has managed to make the financial world lose its mind, or rather, perhaps, to bring it back to a little more reason. This is a fine example of the absurdity of the efficient markets theory! The stock market is a wonderful mirror of human psychology, one time euphoric, another panicked. Not long ago investors were ready to pay prices totally disconnected from reality for practically any growth stock and now we are selling en masse and rushing to gold and bonds.
Despite this correction, the market is still very expensive, especially in Switzerland and the USA. It would be wrong to think that stocks are now being sold off, this is still very far from being the case. They are just a little less expensive.
That being said, I am delighted to provide you with the results of the survey. About a hundred of you participated and your answers show that the majority of you have balls and that it is not a small virus that will destabilize you as investors. Apparently you are also quite keen on the bottle, another common point that we share ;-). Of course, you understood that the survey was deliberately intended to be a little offbeat, just to get out of the ambient psychosis. A very small number resort to the gun (I hope it is for the virus) or write their last wills (think of the other readers, if ever I can organize a kitty). Surprisingly, protective masks are not very successful, which clashes with what we hear everywhere. It is just a little better for provisions and disinfectant gel.
In short, have a good weekend, good stock market, take care of yourself and above all: stay ZEN.
| Chosen means of combating Coronavirus | Percentage (%) |
| Actions | 21% |
| Whiskey | 18% |
| Disinfectant gel | 17% |
| Provisions | 11% |
| Protective masks | 9% |
| Gold | 9% |
| Desert island | 9% |
| Seal | 3% |
| Treasury bonds | 2% |
| Gun | 1% |
| Will | 1% |
| Prozac | 0%
|
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Hello! This time, the opportunities may finally present themselves... Is it possible that by Monday schools/work will be closed?
For an investor like me who focuses on the div, nothing but the div, without looking at stock market prices (and who has kept 70% of cash...), the sun will perhaps brighten a little with the correction?
For you who aspire to independence, the fall in prices could be a sign of retirement when you have found your place again and the sun has come back? 🙂
My JFNs are getting fucked, lol 🙂 UHR too. IVF Hartman and BVZ holding compensate quite well. But no matter the posturing… the trick is going to be finding a good entry point.
If the correction is significant, then we can indeed consider that stocks will become interesting again. But not only will it take a further significant drop, but we will also have to wait for the market to stabilize properly, so as not to be caught in a bearish whirlwind. If these two conditions are met, it can open the door to many things. As far as I am concerned, financial independence can become a very serious option.
JFN: not surprising: depends on tourism and was expensive
UHR: same
IVF Hartmann: Take advantage of the rush on masks and disinfectant gels! Well done dividinde.
BVZ: depends on tourism but is protected by its low valuation, size and low liquidity. It is a low-exposure stock.
Financial laws finally seem to be reasserting their rights... My "determinant" portfolio is holding up well (-4.7% since 02/18) and is once again outperforming the market (-12% for the S&P 500 over the same period).
I will finally be able to start shopping with my loot! 😀
I was starting to get hungry.
Argh, I haven't been able to connect to this site for a week! It finally looks good 🙂
To talk about something other than the coronavirus:
Jerome, do you know a free site that gives the Piotroski F-score and Altman Z-score for Swiss stocks? Thanks!
Biz.. I made some improvements to make the site more fluid, that may be why, but I didn't notice any outages on my side. Or maybe you caught a virus... 😉
No, I don't know, but I can calculate them for you if there aren't too many... I'm used to it.
Thanks Jerome, the problem is that I am constantly evaluating many Swiss stocks and I would need an automatic instrument.
Some stocks that I had not been interested in for months due to their overvaluation (such as Novartis or Swiss Re) are back in my sights and I am running them through my filters.
This week I was much more active than usual and I took advantage of the sales to open several positions. It is possible that the market will plunge another 10 or 30%, it is possible that the bottom will already be reached soon, I have no idea, and I am not really interested.
What I do know is that there is finally passive income to buy at a better price again and that these dividends are much more important to my quest for freedom than the price of their underlying asset. 🙂
Personally, I am of the opinion that US and Swiss stocks are still and always too expensive. It is not a small drop of ten % that makes the difference. The same journalists who were excited a short while ago because the market was breaking records after records are already getting excited because according to them there are already great opportunities to seize. It is absurd.
I'm like Dividinde, I took advantage of Friday to do some shopping. Indeed, it's possible that it will drop again, as not... election year obliges... will the tradition be maintained??
I was also listening to a Quebec podcast this morning that talked about PEG (PE divided by the projection of earnings growth in 1TP3Q to come). The origin goes back to P. Lynch… has anyone heard of this ratio? Does anyone use it?
Yes, of course. "Winning in the Stock Market" by Lynch is the very first book I read on the stock market about twenty years ago. I really like this author, his investment philosophy and his humor, but a little less the PEG because the growth of profits is very variable and difficult to predict.
This week's decline puts the markets back more or less at the level of October 2019... which was already expensive. For me, it's still a bit early to talk about correctly valued stocks.
Hello everyone,
The current correction in the markets reminds us that prices are being artificially boosted by central banks.
We are also seeing a return of volatility oscillating between "fear and greed" independently of the fundamentals and the high valuations of "blue chips".
This is why "stock picking" must be carried out according to each person's strategy, remembering that you must buy at the sound of the cannon and sell at the sound of the bugle!
Good luck to all and have a good weekend