Here is another strange stock market year ending, with indices breaking record after record. I had made myself humiliated by the market in the first half of the year, achieving a performance of just over 3% (compared to nearly 20% for the SPI). In the second half of the year, I was practically on a par with him, at nearly 8% of gains, while maintaining significantly less volatility, thanks to 15% of real estate, 10% of Treasury bonds, 10% of cash and 5% of gold. I am therefore very happy with this second half of the year. I was helped in this by the very good performance of my Japanese small caps.
That said, I dragged the backlog accumulated during the first half of the year with me, never managing to catch up. In the end, my portfolio increased by 13,65% in 2019, making less than half the performance of the SPI (+32%). Even though I am happy to have made infinitely more money than if I had left it in a bank account, I obviously cannot be satisfied with such a gap on the market. Fortunately, the match ends at the final whistle and, even if I know I am repeating myself, the downward correction is always a little closer. With value stocks and diversified asset classes, I am equipped to face it.
Since the launch of the portfolio in 2010, this gives me an average annual performance of 9.8%, compared to 8.3% for the SPI. I am still maintaining my gap, but it is always narrowing a little more. My portfolio has about forty positions as of 31.12.2019, I have reached the maximum of what I set for myself. I will avoid acquiring more, unless I have a big crush.
In 2019, I received CHF 16,800 in net dividends, which is my best year yet. Paradoxically, the more I struggle compared to the market, the more I earn in income. This is the effect of value stocks, which pay more, but are currently lagging behind growth stocks.
I am now 40% on my way to financial independence, with the remainder of my income coming from real estate. My loyal readers will recall that I set myself four years ago an ambitious goal for the year 2020. Obviously, to become a rentier already next year, the market would have had to correct in the meantime, so that I could acquire even more dividend-paying stocks. We will see if this will be the case next year.
2020 is also a big year because on December 1st dividendes.ch will celebrate its tenth anniversary. I would like to take this opportunity to thank all my readers for their loyalty. In this anniversary year, there will be many new features, with the publication of a large e-book during the spring as well as a planned overhaul of theasset allocation, in connection with some elements that will be covered in the new book. This one is taking up a fair bit of my time at the moment, which is why I have less time to post at the moment. Thank you for your patience. The reworked part on asset allocation will certainly become a premium part in the future (therefore paid but at a very reasonable price). As long as it is in the development phase, it will nevertheless remain free.
To everyone, I wish you an excellent year 2020 and a good stock market.
Discover more from dividendes
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
The first rule is not to lose money. The second rule is not to forget the first. A famous investor says it… 🙂 so you are respecting the fundamental rule. And to stay positive and optimistic, even if you do less well than the market, you are still getting closer to stock market independence than many people who take out numerous consumer loans to make people believe that they have the means… but they are moving further away from financial independence every day… I also wish you a great 2020 between the US elections, Brexit, the trade war, Kim Jong Un provoking Trump, and so on and so forth… Thank you for everything you share on your site and for the many exchanges in the discussions!
Thanks AGU. Already the US elections, it goes by quickly with Trump, proof that we don't get bored with him 😉
Great performance bro, especially from the dividend growth point of view! Those 1400 francs falling from the sky every month, whether you get out of bed or not, bring you a lot closer to your goal of financial independence.
I haven't done the exact calculation yet, but at first glance my portfolio has grown by about 23% this year (without taking into account the new positions initiated in 2019). On the other hand, the total amount of dividends has increased by "only" 12% (organic growth + new purchases). This result is not extraordinary according to my criteria, since I am much more interested in the growth of my dividends than in that of my portfolio. This also indicates that prices have grown much faster than profits and dividends, and that the market is (too) expensive.
I also wish you lots of happiness and success in 2020 as well as to all the readers 🙂
Thanks bro. 12% more dividends is still appreciable, without doing anything or almost nothing. You can apply to pension funds, it seems that they don't know how to make money at the moment.
Small question of understanding:
What exactly do you mean by "CHF 16,800 net dividends"? Are you subtracting the non-recoverable foreign withholding taxes? Or the (recoverable) withholding tax on Swiss shares? Or are you also taking into account the taxes you will have to pay on your dividends?
I don't bother. I deduct 30% on all gross dividends received. I consider the rest 'as permanently lost', according to a famous line.
Any bonuses refunded by the tax authorities I send them directly to pay for my speeding tickets.
Well done to you, patience and reflection are the secret ^^
I am increasingly wondering what awaits us in the stock market this year. Almost all markets are flirting with their peaks, bad news is ignored, momentum is extremely strong. But valuations are becoming so insolent that I am less and less comfortable with certain positions.
Should we continue to surf this huge wave or gently get out of the water before we get hit in the face?!
There are 2 things driving the market right now:
1) the momemtum as you said
2) rates
Momentum tells us that there is a chance that this will last for a few more months.
Rates make stocks more attractive than bonds and so money flows into the first asset class.
As a result, valuation ratios are exploding, particularly those of growth companies.
Valuable companies, on the other hand, especially small ones, remain quite cheap, especially outside the US. Among them, those that are of quality and have little debt are best equipped to withstand a rise in rates. Unlike Tesla and other chimeras.
In short, the question is not whether the market is high but whether the companies we own are of quality and correctly (or under) valued.
That's very true, it's not because a market is pumped up with hormones that all individual stocks are. After all, the notion of "correct" or "reasonable" valuation is very subjective and greatly influenced by the general mood of the market. On the stock market there is no absolute standard, no immutable reference.
In other words, the consensus on the correct valuation of a typical company is not at all the same in a bear market (like in 2018) as in the current euphoria. Today, PEs of 23 or 25 are legion, whereas a few years ago no one wanted these same stocks at PEs of 18 or 20.
…like in 2008 (and not 2018)…
That's clear. Obviously I wasn't talking to you about PER stocks at 23 when I mentioned correctly valued companies.
There is still quality at affordable prices, but you have to look in the last corners of the financial world, especially where ETFs and institutions are not rampant, the world of very small companies. Japan is also still shunned by the market, even if it has been performing well for a few months.
Well done Jerome for your performance
By consulting your asset allocation, and given that this allocation concerns several countries, can you tell me if you do an initial sorting, among the stocks, with a screener?
I find it complicated to follow so many actions without doing any prior sorting.
In any case, I thank you for inspiring me for several years with your numerous articles.
Nuno
Hi Nuno
yes indeed I obviously use a screener
then I do another quick “visual” sorting, before analyzing in more detail