UBS (UBSG:VTX) Analysis

Une fois n'est pas coutume, nous allons nous attarder sur une entreprise à la réputation sulfureuse, qu'elle traîne depuis des lustres, et tout particulièrement depuis la fin du siècle dernier. C'est à peu près à ce moment que l'Union de Banques Suisses et la Société de Bank Suisse ont fusionné, pour créer un géant de la gestion de fortune, le plus important au monde. L'histoire d'UBS remonte pourtant à la nuit des temps, en 1854, lorsque six banques de gestion de fortune helvétiques créent un consortium nommé "Bankverein" à Bâle. Mais depuis une vingtaine d'années, UBS est devenu aux yeux du grand public, en bonne partie à raison, tout ce qu'il y a de plus détestable dans le système financier, à savoir évasion fiscale, fraude systématique, fonds juifs en déshérence, etc. A l'image de ses dirigeants de l'époque, Marcel Ospel en tête, elle a fait preuve d'une arrongance et d'une suffisance déplorables à l'égard du peuple et de ses élites. Pourtant c'est la Confédération et la BNS qui durent la sauver en 2008. Par ses agissements UBS porte à coup sûr une part de responsabilité dans la fin du secret bancaire, valeur suisse cardinale durant des siècles. Aujourd'hui encore, elle traîne des vieilles casseroles à cause ses agissements et de sa réputation, avec des procès qui perdurent dans plusieurs pays.

This deplorable image has a positive side for investors. UBS, despite its enormous size, is shunned by the markets, which makes it attractive from a price point of view. The Swiss financial giant is trading at:

  • 14.15 times current recurring earnings
  • 13.65 times average recurring earnings
  • 1.08 book value
  • 1.24 times tangible assets

THE dividend yield est par ailleurs particulièrement généreux, avec 4.36%, alors même que le distribution ratio n'est que de 61.73% par rapport aux bénéfices courants (et de 59.54% par rapport aux bénéfices moyens). De plus, non satisfaite de cette générosité, UBS a fait progresser ses distributions sur un rythme impressionnant de 21.06% par an en moyenne (ces cinq dernières années).

Frankly, if the analysis stopped there, we would jump on it. But with banks, you always have to be wary of appearances, because they can be very misleading. Investors at the beginning of the 21st century remember this. Indeed, behind these enticing figures lies a much less rosy reality. UBS has an unfortunate tendency to display a free cash flow in the red. Negative free cash flow is certainly not extraordinary with banks, because of their particular operating mode based on debt, which offers a significant leverage effect. Cash flows can vary quite significantly from one year to the next. What is special about UBS is that free cash flow certainly fluctuates a lot over the long term, but with a negative bias. Over the last five years, it has been strongly positive once (2013), twice barely positive (2014 and 2015), once quite negative (2016) and once strongly negative (2017). The trend is therefore rather bad... It should also be noted that a negative FCF is not very good for the dividend, which has also fallen at UBS since 2015.

Un autre indicateur, reconnu pour sa fiabilité, vient également nous donner un nouvel éclairage sur cette valorisation en apparence attractive d'UBS. L'EBITDA ne se monte en effet qu'à 1.87% de la valeur d'entreprise, ce qui est apparemment contradictoire avec le PER assez bon marché indiqué ci-dessus (on devrait en effet avoir des chiffres plus proches de 10% pour l'EBITDA/EV). Ceci s'explique néanmoins facilement par la structure du capital d'UBS, fortement marquée par la dette. En effet, celle-ci se monte à 4.43 fois les capitaux propres, ce qui est très important, même pour une banque. De plus cette dette n'a pas tendance à décroître, bien au contraire, à l'inverse des actifs qui baissent lentement, mais sûrement. La banque suisse possède indéniablement quelques difficultés à créer de la valeur, ce qui se traduit par un cours qui végète depuis une dizaine d'années. La rentabilité n'est d'ailleurs pas au rendez-vous, avec un ROA de seulement 0.43 ( en légère hausse tout de même) et un ROE de 7.65%.

Bref, avec UBS, on a la vague impression d'être en face d'un accidenté de la route, qui vit dans le coma depuis une dizaine d'années. L'entreprise survit, mais n'arrive pas à se réveiller et encore moins à se relever. Si l'on doit garder une image positive de tout cela, c'est que son cas semble plus ou moins stabilisé. La volatility du cours actuellement, avec 9%, pourrait même faire pâlir des valeurs défensives. Et puis, même si le dividende n'est pas à l'abri d'un ajustement à la baisse, il reste particulièrement généreux. Incontestablement, UBS est toujours convalescente, et donc boudée par les investisseurs, en bonne partie à raison. Sa valorisation par rapport à ses bénéfices, alléchante, est à prendre avec des pincettes car contrebalancée par un FCF négatif et une structure du capital fortement basée sur la dette. Par contre, le prix par rapport aux actifs est particulièrement intéressant et explique aussi pourquoi le cours s'est stabilisé depuis plusieurs années, à un bas niveau.

History has often presented us with situations like this. Companies that have been through hell and have stagnated for many years, shunned by the market, before being reborn. But sometimes it takes them a very long time to take off again, sometimes they stagnate forever and sometimes they end up dying anyway. If UBS has one indisputable quality that could go in its direction, it is precisely its history. Provided it has not forgotten it.


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22 thoughts on “Analyse d’UBS (UBSG:VTX)”

  1. Thank you Jerome for this excellent analysis which clearly highlights all the contradictions linked to UBS: a reasonable valuation in appearance but also full of more or less latent defects. I burned my wings with this action about ten years ago and I have never digested its rescue with public money, as well as the arrogance of its leaders.

    Since then, I much prefer to invest in cantonal banks whose profile is much more conservative, even if the growth leaves something to be desired and they are almost all expensive. You will tell me that it is not necessarily better and that several cantonal banks have also been saved from bankruptcy by their canton...

  2. Very good investment indeed and which shows all its defensive qualities in this period of stock market turmoil. On the other hand, I cannot buy it at the moment because I find the stock highly overvalued.

  3. Impressive yesterday and today the number of titles that fall between 5 and 10% without any particular news!

    1. It was time. Enough of rising rates in the US with the sick levels on stocks...
      Let's hope this time we get a real correction. I have plenty of cash that's just begging for that!

  4. …and I am on holiday in France and I discover with despair that abroad I clearly cannot access my Postfinance account!

  5. Philip of Habsburg

    Taking a vacation in France in the middle of autumn, what an idea! 😛
    You'll need a VPN, but on the other hand, vacations are made for disconnecting...

    Yeah, I'm also looking forward to a real correction, but I'm in no hurry to be a buyer. I'm happy to have a good percentage of secure investments at the moment...

    1. Ah, that's clear that we're not going to have to get excited at the first little fall. The market is starting from such a high point that the descent can be either very long like in 2000 or very brutal like in 2008. I prefer it when it's brutal... Oh yesssss!

  6. France is beautiful in autumn, it's not too hot and the forests are the same color as the stock market! And where I am there are more Germans and German-Swiss than French...

    I am also curious to see how the market will evolve and whether we are in for a big correction. It is quite possible, since for the first time in 10 years bonds are starting to seriously compete with stocks.

    In any case, as soon as I return to Switzerland I will start opening positions, no one can know if we are in for a fall of 50% or a correction of lesser magnitude.

  7. US 10-year bonds have exceeded 3.25%, a level not reached since 2011. It is therefore currently possible in the States to earn more than 3% "without risk", which makes stocks (much riskier in comparison - according to the consensus, of course) less and less attractive (especially compared to dividends). As a result, investors are increasingly fleeing the stock market. And when US stocks nosedived, the global stock market does the same.

    1. Oh yes, in the USA I agree. And that is what explains the fall in stocks.
      On the other hand, in our country, bonds remain a very bad solution.

  8. Philip of Habsburg

    I have a feeling some people are going to remember October for months to come! And not for the right reasons!

    It's so funny to see Trump getting carried away about the current situation. And it's never his fault, always someone else's! What an idiot.

    1. He is so predictable. When stocks go up it is because of him (he just forgets that there were almost 10 years of accommodative Fed policy before that explains this phenomenon).
      And when they go down it is precisely because the Fed is only doing its job to prevent the economy from overheating (already overboosted by the puppet's budgetary policy).
      He manages the country like his buildings. And like his wife(s).

  9. Laurent Martin

    I have seen that several banks believe that this week's decline is only temporary and maintain their bullish outlook on stocks...

  10. What do you think of the annual figures? The cash outflows leave me wondering, on the other hand the share buyback program and the increase in the dividend (current yield 5.4%!) are very tempting…

    1. Yes, but that didn't stop the stock from falling. The knife continues to fall. Yes, the dividend is interesting, but is it worth the effort?
      I have some, I'll keep it but not buy any more.

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