Not much change for this month. Equities remain expensive overall and yet their total target allocation remains high at nearly 70% (developed and emerging countries), especially because of the miserable yield on bonds.
US and Swiss stocks are still following a positive trend but are really too expensive. As for Canadian stocks, they are barely more accessible and are following a downward trend. For these regions, it is therefore better to stay cash or very little exposed. Small improvement on the other hand for Europe compared to the previous month. The valuation of stocks is quite correct overall, with a slightly positive trend. We can therefore be invested there cautiously. Concerning Japan and emerging countries, the lights are still green, attractive valuation and positive trend, so we can be invested there without problem.
In real assets, gold is still following a positive trend. As already mentioned, in these times it feels good in the portfolio. The position is therefore invested. As for thereal estate, it is still and always a permanent allowance which also does good.
The position in long-term bonds remains cash, the trend still being slightly bearish. Do not forget to keep some cash because it could go back into the green soon. In any case, the position will remain minority given the miserable coupons of the bonds.
Enfin, concernant les stratégies alternatives, pas de changement non plus. Mes stratégies long/short ne fonctionnent pas de manière extraordinaire en ce moment, mais je me rassure en voyant que l'ETF FTLS ne fait pas mieux et que le buy&hold non plus. La stratégie leverage est quant à elle au repos forcé jusqu'à ce qu'on assiste à un nouveau lessivage des actions. Patience, patience...
We are in a period of intense struggle between bulls and bears at the moment. It will go one way or the other shortly, up or down. And when it goes there, it will go quite violently I think. The question is which way. Market levels, especially in the US, suggest that the bears may win, but who knows, there may still be enough crazy people to push the market even higher.
In any case, it has never been more important to diversify your assets (including cash) and to focus on regions and stocks that are still cheap.
| Target Tactical Asset Allocation | Position | ETF | Target |
| CH Actions * | Light (Stocks) or Cash (ETF) | CHSPI | 60% |
| Actions Europe *** | Invested (Equities or ETFs) | CSSX5E | |
| USA Actions * | Light (Stocks) or Cash (ETF) | CSSPX | |
| Actions Canada ** | Light (Stocks) or Cash (ETF) | CSCA | |
| Japan Actions **** | Invested (Equities or ETFs) | SJPA | |
| Emerging country actions **** | Investment (ETF) | IEMS | 9% |
| Real Estate CH | Investment (ETF) | SRFCHA | 15% |
| CH Confederation Bonds 7-15 years | Cash | CSBGC0 | 6% |
| Gold | Investment (ETF) | AUCHAH | 5% |
| Long/short strategy | Invested (Equities or ETFs) | FTLS | 5% |
| Leverage strategy | Cash | UPRO | 0% |
| *Rating: 1* (very expensive) to 5* (very affordable) | |||
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It is true that following the February correction, stocks have recovered well and are very expensive again. A correction of at least 10% of the US market still seems inevitable to me. But as you say, regardless of the valuation, the stock market can do what it wants. The stock market is a diva!