Analysis of BVZ Holding AG (BVZN:SWX)

BVZ Holding AG est une société holding basée en Suisse dont l'activité principale est l'exploitation de chemins de fer dans les cantons du Valais, d'Uri et des Grisons. Les entreprises ferroviaires constituent le cœur du groupe. En font partie la société Matterhorn Gotthard Bahn, ainsi que les deux marques touristiques, Gornergrat Bahn et Glacier Express. La société Matterhorn Gotthard Bahn fournit des services de transport publics sur mandat de la Confédération et des cantons du Valais, d'Uri et des Grisons. Le réseau s'étend de la vallée de Zermatt à l'Ursen et la Surselva, en passant par Viège, Brigue et la vallée de Conches. Font aussi partie du Matterhorn Gotthard Bahn la plateforme de chargement de voitures de la Furka et de l'Oberalp, ainsi que le transport de marchandises vers Zermatt. Le secteur real estate, attribué à la société BVZ Asset Management AG, fournit des services immobiliers de nature résidentielle et commerciale. Même si la holding n'a été fondée qu'en 1999, les chemins de fer appartenant à la société BVZ témoignent d'une très longue histoire. Les marques « Matterhorn Gotthard Bahn » et « Gornergrat Bahn » trouvent en effet leur origine au 19e siècle. La holding compte à ce jour 633 employés.

Valorization

BVZ se négocie à un prix correct, à 18.5 fois les bénéfices récurrents, 1.2 fois les actifs tangibles, 1.17 fois les ventes et 11.5 fois le free cash flow. Du point de vue du dividende c'est un peu moins bien en apparence, puisque le rendement ne se monte qu'à 1.5%. Cependant, ceci s'explique par un payout ratio de seulement 27.5% par rapport aux bénéfices, et surtout 17.14% par rapport au free cash flow. L'entreprise valaisanne possède donc une marge substantielle de sécurité et de progression à propos de son dividende. Elle ne s'est d'ailleurs pas privée de l'augmenter par le passé, avec une croissance annuelle moyenne de 4.8% ces cinq dernières années.

Balance sheet & result

Just like the dividend, profits and cash reserves are growing over the long term. Even if the value of the assets tends to decrease slightly, BVZ manages to create value for its owners, which is reflected in the share price, which has doubled over the last three years.

Cash reserves are quite good, with a current ratio of 1.44 (down) and a quick ratio of 1.22. This is certainly not optimal, but it still allows the bills to be paid.

There gross margin est très importante et en hausse, à 77.5%. Voilà qui sent bon le monopole! La marge nette est correcte, avec 7.55%, avec une marge de free cash flow encore plus importante, de 10.14%. La rentabilité est moyenne par contre, avec un ROA de 2.34%, un ROE de 8% et un rendement en cash flow des actifs de 7.53%.

The long-term debt-to-asset ratio is very high, although slightly down, at 48.9%. Total debt has been steadily falling for many years, but it would still take BVZ 14 years to amortize it using its free cash flow. That is obviously a very long time!

On the positive side, the number of shares outstanding has been stable for many years, which avoids any dilution of shareholders' assets.

Conclusion

BVZ is a company with a long history, benefiting from an exceptional situational income: the Matterhorn. It is therefore de facto sheltered from all competition. It is also mandated in its missions by the public authorities. BVZ is a niche, sheltered from everything that happens around it, which is corroborated by a downright zero beta. It is also little followed by analysts and institutions. Its only weak point is its very high debt ratio.

Despite the strong price increase in recent years, I believe that the stock is still very slightly underestimated. It is probably no longer a buying opportunity, at least not a strong buy, but it is clearly a stock to keep in your portfolio or to watch with a view to buying in the event of a price drop.


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9 thoughts on “Analyse de BVZ Holding AG (BVZN:SWX)”

  1. BVZ is really a very nice company. Despite a profitability that is not very high, it shines in many other aspects. I am waiting for a correction to buy myself a slice of it.

    The PER you give (18.5) is in relation to the profit for the year 2016. BVZ exploded its profit in 2017 (63.12 fr per share against 44.22 in 2016!) and this results in a 2017 PER of only 12.75

  2. Small update with the 2017 figures.
    No significant changes, except for an increase in liquidity, margin and profitability. Debt also continues to decline.
    In short, BVZN is still solid.

  3. How do you see the development of transport in the coming years? Isn't there a risk that BVZ will reach a certain saturation point and that the number of passengers transported will soon stagnate?

    1. Honestly, I leave these questions to the analysts who will have fun making more or less crazy projections and hypotheses. I never have fun trying to predict the future because in this little game everyone can be wrong and everyone can be right too. Even a broken clock gives the correct time 2x a day…
      The important thing is to get value for money with what is known today, while also taking a safety margin, to prepare for the future.

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