Valuation indicators (1/9)

Valuation ratios are financial indicators that enable us to form an opinion about the relative cost of a stock. When you want to buy a stock, one of the first things you look at is its price. Is it expensive? Cheap? Relative to what? Is it a two- or three-digit number, or is it a penny stock? Has the price fallen recently, or has it been on an upward trend for some time?

Tout ceci ne signifie pas grand chose en tant que tel. Une action à 50 centimes peut vous coûter paradoxalement bien plus cher qu'une autre à 2'000 balles. Par exemple, l'action (part A) de Berkshire Hathaway, l'entreprise du célèbre Warren Buffett, coûte actuellement plus de 280'000 USD. Alors effectivement, c'est beaucoup par rapport aux ressources financières de Monsieur et Madame Tout-le-Monde. Mais la question qu'il faut se poser est : est-ce que c'est cher par rapport à ce que ça vaut réellement ? Ça l'est certainement moins que Tesla which is currently quoted at USD 320 and is only making losses.

Falling knives, rising rockets... or keep your feet on the ground with valuation ratios

In the same vein, this just because a share price has fallen sharply doesn't mean it's a bargain. It's often said in the stock market that you can't catch a falling knife. Most of the time, this is invaluable advice. Those who, like me, thought they were getting a good deal with Swissair learned this the hard way. And yet this company was considered one of the best airlines in the world.

Conversely, others follow a strategy known as "momentum", i.e. buying in line with the trend, and thus buying at the top. Research has shown that this approach works, but that the effect is short-lived. This is due to the time it takes for information to spread, from insiders, groups of friends, colleagues, professional investors, institutional investors, to the mass of investors. This means that if you buy a company whose share price has risen sharply in the last 6 or 12 months, you have to sell it in 6 or 12 months. After that, there's a good chance you'll lose out.

If price in itself doesn't mean much, how do you know if you're buying expensive stock or not? It's a bit like going to the fruit and vegetable market: you have to feel what you've got, smell it, look at it - in short, make sure you're getting value for money. In the stock market, this means looking at sales, profits, dividends, cash and assets. From this we can deduce fairly simple valuation indicators which can be of great help to investors, but which paradoxically few of them bother with. That's unfortunate for them, but fortunate for us...

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