Portfolio development: status of securities

After several weeks of reorganization, I am finally able to present below a first version of my new portfolio. Some adjustments are still necessary, but let's say that I am 75% away from my objective. I still have a few overvalued stocks or those that no longer correspond to my security criteria. I also and above all have a lot of cash left to invest (around 30%). As I have already mentioned in my previous articles, these reserves do not represent a long-term strategic allocation. It's just that I can't find much worth buying at the moment.

Comme vous pourrez le constater, la partie US de mon portfolio a fondu comme neige au soleil. Il ne reste que quelques représentants de mes fameux "Global Dividend Growers", tels que LOW et MMM qui sont malgré tout sur la brèche, HRL qui se tient encore pas trop mal ou l'indétrônable VFC. Il y a aussi les survivants des  "Ex-US International Dividend Stocks" tels que BELL, EMMN, eux aussi intouchables. Dans les "Smoking & Drinking Dividends", il demeure British American Tobacco, que j'avais déjà avec le ticker BATS, et que j'ai maintenant aussi avec le ticker BTI suite à la cession de mon ancienne possession de Reynolds (que j'avais elle-même héritée de Lorillard). BATS/BTI sont également sur la sellette. Toujours dans cette stratégie du vice il me reste VCO, qui est lui par contre en position assez forte. Mais à part ça, c'est le grand nettoyage en particulier pour les titres américains, qui sont devenus vraiment trop chers.

On the contrary, the portfolio has shifted to the East, that is to say to Europe and Asia, in particular Japan. This is the only place where we still find clearly undervalued stocks. In terms of sectors, finance, almost absent from my old strategies, is making an appearance, with a few banks and insurance companies. It is not that I am a big fan of this sector, but it must be recognized that the fundamentals are not too bad and these stocks are still shunned by the market, following the chaos they caused 10 years ago. A few ETFs are also making their appearance to diversify the portfolio's assets, thanks to long-term bonds and gold, in accordance with my article dedicated to this problem.

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Malgré ce grand remue ménage, je reste fidèle à mes principes de base puisque la quasi totalité des titres paie des growing dividends. Il y a néanmoins quelques petites exceptions. L'ETF qui réplique l'or physique n'en paie pas. Ce n'est pas trop grave car la position est petite (5% du portefeuille) et je l'utilise uniquement pour me couvrir (et racheter le cas échéant des titres payeurs de dividendes croissants si le marché s'effondre). Dans le même style, l'ETF composé d'obligations longues paie des distributions, mais elles ne sont pas croissantes. Là aussi la position est minoritaire (10%) et elle sert surtout de couverture (avec des coupons en prime). Dans les titres eux-mêmes, il y a 4 exceptions. Trois d'entre eux représentent de toutes petites positions (2x à Hong Kong et 1x en Allemagne) et sont des "mégots de cigare" selon Graham. As for the last title that does not generate income, we will say that we forgive it easily since it is BRK, W. Buffett's company. Since the profits are reinvested in a more than intelligent way, we are willing to turn a blind eye.

Given the significant amount of research and portfolio reorganization that this represented, I was not able to present to you as I went along the reasons for the purchases/sales of all these stocks. Now that the bulk of the work is done, I will take more time in the future to explain the different transactions and present the company analyses. Among the stocks purchased, some have already made significant progress, such as NRS. We can therefore legitimately ask ourselves whether they are still affordable. However, given that I took particular care to take a significant margin of safety, I am of the opinion that the potential for gain is still very much present (NRS is still at less than 10x earnings for example).

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Les pondérations des positions ne sont pas équivalentes. Typiquement les small caps japonaises sont investies avec des montants qui représentent entre la moitié et le tiers des autres sociétés. 59% du portfolio est investi dans des titres suisses, 26% encore dans des titres US (mais ça va continuer à baisser) et 9% au Japon. Je pense continuer à augmenter un peu la part de placements dans ce pays, vu les valorisations très attractives des sociétés, mais je ne vais pas non plus y investir de manière massive, en tout cas pour l'instant, vu ce qu'il se passe en Corée. Avec les deux tarés Trump et Kim on ne sait jamais ce qui peut se passer...

Finally, let us note that I continue to take positions from time to time in the direction or against the market, with or without leverage, according to the principles of my old strategy (Trading Auto Signal). From time to time I will share them with you. This is also what led me to issue a short-term warning on the American market in my last monthly allowance post. With the short-term correction having taken place, I am closing my inverse position today, as soon as Wall Street opens.

Name Symbol
Allianz SE ALV:FRA
Altria Group Inc MO:NYQ
Cantonal Bank of Geneva BCGE:SWX
Cantonal Bank of Valais WKBN:SWX
Bell Food Group AG BELL:SWX
Berkshire Hathaway Inc BRK.B:NYQ
British American Tobacco PLC BATS:LES /BTI:NYQ
BVZ Holding AG BVZN:SWX
Champion Technology Holdings Ltd 92:HKG
Credit Suisse Real Estate Fund Interswiss INT:SWX
Emmi AG EMMN:SWX
Hormel Foods Corp HRL:NYQ
Huegli Holding AG HUE:SWX
iShares Swiss Domestic Government Bond 7-15 (CH) CSBGC0:SWX:CHF
Kato Works Co Ltd 6390:TYO
Lowe's Companies Inc LOW:NYQ
Mitani Corp 8066:TYO
Mitsui Sugar Co Ltd 2109:TYO
Mobimo Holding AG MOBN:SWX
Mory Industries Inc 5464:TYO
Narasaki Sangyo Co Ltd 8085:TYO
Nisshin Fudosan Co Ltd 8881:TYO
Norway Royal Salmon ASA NRS:OSL
Orior AG ORON:SWX
ROY Ceramics SE RY8:FRA
Sanyei Corp 8119:TYO
Shinnihon Corp 1879:TYO
Subaru Corp 7270:TYO
Swiss Life Holding AG SLHN:VTX
Swisscom AG SCMN:VTX
Togami Electric Mfg Co Ltd 6643:TYO
Toho Acetylene Co Ltd 4093:TYO
Toronto-Dominion Bank TD:TOR
UBS ETF (CH) – Gold (CHF) hedged (CHF) A-dis AUCHAH:SWX:CHF
UBS Group AG UBSG:VTX
Unity Investments Holdings Ltd 913:HKG
Valiant Holding AG VATN:SWX
Vaudoise Assurances Holding SA VAHN:SWX
VF Corp VFC:NYQ
Vina Concha y Toro SA VCO:NYQ
Warteck Invest AG WARN:SWX

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6 thoughts on “Évolution du portfolio : état des titres”

  1. Thanks for this interesting update. I am glad to see that you have decreased the US allocation and increased the Swiss share. From my point of view, US stocks have 3 gray disadvantages: a very high valuation, the Forex risk and finally the tax aspects.

    I have very different positions from yours, it's enriching to see that everyone has other selection criteria and that there is not just one way to do it. On the other hand, I was really surprised to see BCGE and UBS in your portfolio!

    1. Eh eh eh. I knew I was going to get a comment from you on this. For UBS it's a little nod to a friend with whom we got a beating with Swissair at the time. Let's say that the wheel turns and now it's me, the ex-loser of Swissair who becomes the owner of the UBS moralizer. Indeed, for those who remember, the Swiss banks had come as 'saviors' to get the airline out of the impasse. We know what happened afterwards, both for Swissair and for UBS. So now I'm picking up the crumbs of the arrogant giant at a low price. I've always been a contrarian at heart and here we are right in it. The stock is clearly being shunned by the market.

      For BCGE it is also a bit linked to this contrarian approach which pushes me towards the financial sector in a more general way. If for UBS the input came from the 'belly' and was then validated by reason, for BCGE it is only reason which guided my choices.

  2. Hhhm, not good if you start anticipating my comments… 😉

    I understand your approach with UBS, maybe it's also your rebellious or anti-globalization side that's coming out. 🙂

    I also have some very dubious stocks in my portfolio that are relics of another era and that I would never buy today (e.g. Pargesa or Leonteq). Youthful mistakes, so to speak...

    Otherwise, generally speaking, I see that you have a more value-oriented / bargain-hunting approach than I do. For my part, I try to buy high quality, even if it means paying too much for it.

  3. Hello, Why don't you hold on to stocks like At&T (T)? Indeed, it is the stock that is in the portfolio of investors who invest in growing dividends. As for me, it is a stock that I have just reinforced in my portfolio because it is undervalued at the moment.

    1. Yes, that is debatable. I think the title is fairly valued. Not overvalued, certainly, but not undervalued either.
      The dividend is indeed very generous, but at the cost of a very high distribution ratio (not far from 100%). At this level, it has very low growth potential (which is confirmed from a historical point of view), but also risks stagnation, or even, in the worst case, a decrease.
      In addition, liquidity reserves are low (current ratio and acid test ratio less than 1).

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