Monthly Asset Allocation

I am inaugurating a new section here which will appear at the beginning of each month. It follows my series of articles on the diversification de portefeuille. L’idée est de passer en revue chaque actif (obligations longues, or, real estate, actions des pays développés et des pays émergents) et de déterminer pour chacun ce qu’il faut faire. J’indique mon allocation tactique cible en % et si la position est cash ou investie, selon les principes déjà évoqués dans ma série d’articles. L’allocation cible en pourcent est une ligne de conduite à viser à moyen terme (c’est-à-dire qu’on ne va pas vendre ou acheter plein de titres en quelques jours pour atteindre la pondération indiquée). Elle n’est pas à respecter à la lettre et doit être adaptée en fonction de la pondération au risque de chacun.

The indicated weightings of the allocation of each asset are very stable over time. They only change for developed country equities and long-term bonds, but only in the long term, in the event of a substantial change in monetary policies (interest rates). What changes more often, for certain assets, is whether the position should be "Invested", "Light" or "Cash".

In detail:

- pour les obligations longues : soit « Investi » via l’ETF CSBGC0, soit « Cash ». L’allocation tactique est actuellement de 10% et peut évoluer à long terme en fonction des politiques économiques.

- for gold: invested permanently, via the AUCHAH ETF. The tactical allocation is fixed at 5% (does not change over time).

- for real estate: permanently invested via the SRECHA ETF or, better, directly via real estate shares. The tactical allocation is fixed at 15% (does not change over time).

- for shares in developed countries (split 50/50 between domestic and international shares):

- soit « Investi » via les ETFs CHSPI (actions suisses) et SWDA (actions internationales) ou, mieux, via des actions

- either "Light" (for stocks) or "Cash" (for ETFs). If you have a large stock portfolio, you obviously won't sell all your positions if the signal is bad, but you can lighten it by selling the worst stocks.

- the tactical allocation is currently 65% and may change in the long term depending on economic policies.

- for emerging country stocks: either “Invested” via the DEMSX ETF, or “Cash”. The tactical allocation is fixed at 5% (does not change over time).

So right now it's very simple: all positions are invested! A small downside however on the actions:

- from a fundamental point of view, valuations are very high. Even if the medium-term target tactical allocation is 70% (domestic and international equities, including emerging paid), I am currently in the process of reorganizing my portfolio as already mentioned in previous articles, in order to focus on less exposed stocks (less popular, less expensive and in defensive sectors). I therefore currently have a large cash position waiting to be invested in the hope of finding this kind of opportunity. This requires in-depth research because pearls are rare at the moment. It will certainly be necessary to wait for a market correction to invest all the cash and reach the 70% of the target allocation. I will publish the details of my positions soon.

- I expect a bearish correction in the very short term on stocks, particularly on the American S&P 500 index.