What happened on Friday on the political, economic and financial planet is appalling. It seems as if our elites have woken up in a new world. Or rather, that they had never really looked at what was happening before their eyes. By refusing to listen to what the people say, we end up reaping what we have sown. However, people have not wanted Europe for a very long time, at least not the one in Brussels.
The Swiss had already voted on 9 February 2014 against mass immigration. The question asked in the ballot boxes was not identical to that of Brexit, and it did not concern a member of the EU, but the essence of the problem posed was identical: freedom of movement, a fundamental pillar of European construction. The result was 50.3% in favour of the initiative, that is to say to curb mass immigration. A result surprisingly close to that of Brexit (51.9%). This should have alerted the European elites.
It is therefore surprising to see the state of shock that all these people found themselves in on Friday, because all the lights were already red. It is also incredible to see the agitation that has taken hold of the European stock markets, with images reminiscent of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy. It is also surprising to see how the non-EU stock markets are putting the losses into perspective, with -3.4% for the SMI and the Dow Jones. It is a bit as if for these markets Brexit was not really a surprise, at least not as much as for those mainly concerned. Sometimes we see things more clearly when we are outside the system...
So, what does Brexit tell us for the future? It's hard to answer this question. From a financial point of view, we will certainly experience a few volatile weeks on the financial markets, mainly in Europe. In the longer term, there will obviously be an economic and political impact for Europe and the United Kingdom. There will also be new challenges for current partners. The EU will have to reinvent itself, listen more to its people, otherwise we will see "Brexits" everywhere.
For non-EU partner countries, notably the USA and Switzerland, it is also an opportunity to get closer to the United Kingdom. It is also a chance for the Swiss Confederation to see Europe evolve towards an approach more compatible with its own values, that is to say, more decentralised and less political.
In the end, Brexit may not be such a bad thing. Moreover, even if the market as a whole is still too expensive, some stocks have come back down to more correct levels. So watch out for possible positions taken in the coming days. Sparingly of course.
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Brussels' policy is very similar to that of France. The policy of the blind man who does not look at the people. I totally agree with you that we will see Brexits everywhere if Brussels does not pull itself together and clean up its ranks and its organization. Europe wants dynamism and liberalism, freedom to undertake without being taxed by old, poorly governed countries.
There will be no questioning of the European Union. It is purely and simply an anti-democratic structure, composed of representatives who are not members of the European Union, and who have no personal interest in a change of line. The closing of the border between Austria and Germany, a few months ago, marked the beginning of the end for the free movement of people, Brexit marks the reintroduction of economic protectionism. [contre-tendance.com]