Une nouvelle année arrive bientôt à sa fin. Cela me fait penser que je vais bientôt fêter mes 15 ans de carrière d'investisseur. Je me vois encore ouvrir mon compte chez mon premier broker en ligne, tout excité. C'était la grande révolution à l'époque, non seulement pour moi, mais pour tous les investisseurs particuliers qui voulaient se lancer en bourse sans passer par leur banquier traditionnel.
Il y avait indiscutablement quelque chose de magique qui se passait alors. On se connectait avec un modem analogique 56k sur sa ligne téléphonique. Celui-ci émettait des petits sons caractéristiques que seuls ceux qui sont nés au 20e siècle peuvent connaître. L'espace d'un instant on avait l'impression de prendre la place de Matthew Broderick dans War Games. Après quelques secondes d'attente, on était connecté, si tout se passait bien, ce qui était loin d'être évident.
Then came the fateful moment when, with eyes full of hope, we opened the Netscape application, the first commercial Internet browser for the general public. Yes, the Web already existed before Internet Explorer... We connected to Webcrawler, the search engine of the time. Google didn't exist either... Incredible to think that just one generation ago, we were already surfing the Net, but without Internet Explorer and without Google... What will it be like in twenty years' time? Will today's giants still be around, or will they suffer the same fate as Netscape or Webcrawler?
In the end, nothing has changed that much. The web is certainly more user-friendly, but there's also a lot more nonsense, false information and swindlers of all kinds. Our machines are faster, but applications are also more demanding, and in the end we're still doing the same thing: logging on to a browser, passing through a search engine and trying to find the information we need. The names of service providers have changed, some brokers have disappeared and, above all... ABOVE ALL..: shares are as expensive as they used to be!
In this world that moves at 100km/h, if we just take the time to stop for a moment, we realize that in the end, after many detours, we've just been treading water. We haven't really invented anything new. Towers have collapsed, major market players have gone bankrupt, governments have gone broke, politicians have stirred up a lot of air, and we're back to square one. Some even went straight to prison, to use the analogy of the most famous gambling game.
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Indeed, the world is like a spinning wheel, with some moments for embarking and others for disembarking. Oops, it's a lot like the stock market after all... :)
Martin