Take your profits?

"I bought XYZ stock and I've already gained 50% should I sell it". This is a question that comes up very often. If I had sold my stocks every time they gained a few dozen points, I would have missed out on capital gains that amount to hundreds of points. And there are much worse examples than that. Just think of Apple or Microsoft, which are counted in tens of thousands of percent.

Selling with the added value in percent as the only reference is like flirting on the Internet. We only rely on appearances, without trying to understand reality. Let's take our fictitious title XYZ again, and look in more detail:

XYZ 2011 2014 Diff.
Course 50 75 50%
EPS 2.5 5 100%
Dividend 1.5 2.8 87%
Payout ratio 60% 56% -7%
P/E 20 15 -25%
Yield 3.0% 3.7% 24%

By selling the stock because it has gained 50%, we are getting rid of a security that has better fundamentals than when we bought it. Earnings per share (EPS) have doubled, the dividend has increased by 87%, the distribution ratio decreased by 7%, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreased by 25% and the dividend yield increased by 24%.

Of course, there is no guarantee that this situation will not continue in the future. But even if earnings stagnate or decline slightly, the stock will still be more attractive than when it was initially purchased. And since the payout ratio remains prudent, the dividend can still be paid, or even increased if fundamentals deteriorate.

READ  Charles Schwab & TD Ameritrade

To put all the chances on your side, it is also advisable to focus on defensive stocks, which are not very sensitive to the economic situation. They are found in sectors such as food, pharmaceuticals, tobacco, personal care, distribution, clothing and real estate for example. It is clear that in sectors that are very exposed to economic upheavals, such as aviation, automobiles and finance, the fundamentals can deteriorate very quickly, sometimes even sustainably. In this case, profit-taking is more easily justified.


Discover more from dividendes

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

3 thoughts on “Prendre ses bénéfices ?”

  1. Hello Jerome,
    All we need now is a way to visualize the evolution of the payout ratio over, say, 10-20 years 😉

  2. Good morning!
    very nice example!

    For my part, I simply ask myself the following question: would I be a buyer of the stock at this new price? If the answer is yes, I do not sell and if the answer is no, I sell.

    The important thing is still the potential annualized return of the stock over 5 years from now. If it remains above 14% (dividend included) over 5 years, I will keep my shares.

    Of course, the fundamentals must remain intact.

    Martin
    http://www.investir-a-la-bourse.com

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *