Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT)

Wal-Mart est une entreprise américaine, leader mondial de la grande distribution, fondée en 1962. Elle a commencé à s'internationaliser dès 1991, au Canada, au Mexique, au Brésil, en Europe et en Asie. En 2010, avec des ventes de 421'849 milliards de dollars et 2,1 million de salariés travaillant dans plus de 6'100 points de vente, le groupe peut revendiquer le titre de largest company in the worldIt is the largest private employer in the United States with 1.2 million employees, but also in Mexico under the Walmex brand. Walmart is the leading general retailer in the United States with 3,500 stores and an estimated 20,130 million market share and the leading toy retailer with an estimated 45,130 million market share, having surpassed Toys "R" Us in the late 1990s.

Because of its size and enormous purchasing power, Wal-Mart can source its products at rock-bottom prices., by exchanging high purchase volumes at low costs, while passing on the savings to its customers. Many suppliers are thus giving in to pressure from Wal-Mart because they depend on the retailer for a majority of their sales. All things considered, we find ourselves facing a similar scenario in Switzerland, with the oligopoly of Coop and Migros.

 WMT possède a la fois des qualités propres aux titres de valeurs qu'aux titres de croissance, et dans ce sens elle nous fait penser un peu à Coca-Cola. Les fondamentaux de dividendes sont d'ailleurs étonnamment proches entre les deux sociétés. Wal-Mart offre ainsi un rendement à long terme de 2.26%, légèrement moins que KO, mais qu'elle compense par une croissance annuelle moyenne du dividende supérieure, à 14.60%. Son historique de croissance des dividendes est appréciable puisque que WMT a pu augmenter ses distributions durant 36 années consécutives. The distribution rate is maintained at a particularly low and interesting level, at 30.90%, which provides the company with a comfortable margin in the event of a difficult transition and makes it possible to envisage appreciable growth in distributions for several more years.

The most remarkable quality of Wal-Mart is its volatility en CHF, qui n'est que de 8.35%. With figures like these, we are closer to the risk of investing in bonds than in shares... Like Coca-Cola, WMT has also experienced a monstrous progression of its price between 1980 and 2000 (+60,000%!), then "calmed down" during the decade 2000-2010. In comparison, the S&P 500 seems to have almost stood still...

Again, as with KO, this "flat" decade has allowed for a significant drop in the price/earnings ratio, from 75 in 1999 to 13.22 currently. We are now in valuations that we have not seen since the beginning of the 80s, before the period of strong price growth, still like Coca-Cola. In addition, Wal-Mart still has strong growth potential in emerging markets, particularly in China.

Wal-Mart is heavily reliant on China for manufacturing, purchasing billions of dollars worth of goods from China each year. In addition, many of the company's suppliers, such as Mattel (MAT), manufacture their products in China. Wal-Mart's imports are so large that if the company were a country, it would be sixth in the world. ​​the Chinese market at export. By outsourcing to China, the company is able to achieve lower costs, which it in turn passes on to its customers.

However, due to its reliance on Chinese manufacturing, Wal-Mart is vulnerable to fluctuations in the value of the dollar against the Chinese currency. If the USD weakens against the Yuan, the price of Wal-Mart's Chinese imports increases. As a result, the company will either have to raise its prices or lower its gross margins and thus reduce its profitability. This is confirmed by a coefficient $risk of 0.41, meaning that a fall in the dollar against the CHF is generally accompanied by a fall in the value of the stock in Swiss francs.

In conclusion, WMT is a stock that offers a very decent yield and that is growing in a solid and sustainable manner. The profit is large enough to ensure the dividend growth in the future. The volatility in CHF is really low, which could interest investors who are usually rather reluctant to buy shares. The only downside is the stock's sensitivity to fluctuations in the greenback, which could, in the event of a fall in the USD, erode the gains from dividends and the increase in the share price. Despite this, we consider that the income potential that can be obtained from WMT, in relation to the price to be paid and the risk incurred, is still in fact a buying opportunity to this day.