Faced with the devaluation of the dollar, we have taken a number of measures so far, which are certainly useful, but insufficient. We must indeed note that our performance is weighed down by the strength of the CHF, while with the euro as the reference currency the picture is quite different. As we prioritize income and consider stock market capital gains as a happy consequence of a good dividend policy, we must put all the weapons on our side to be able to ignore the parasitism of the stock markets and especially the money markets.
As a reminder, an important measure consisted of taking into account the volatility of securities no longer in their original currency, but in CHF, making certain values more attractive as they resist variations in the dollar well, such as Coca-Cola. We also included Swiss stocks paying increasing dividends, such as Rock, Novartis and Nestlé.
Lastly, we gave a little more weight to the securities that react particularly well to variations in the dollar. Some stocks, particularly in the raw materials industry, have climbed in our ranking portfolio. This is particularly the case for Chevron. The points collected have not been enough to make them buying opportunities for the moment, but the effect will not be long in coming. Let us remember that we are adopting a long-term perspective and that rather than making sudden turns of the steering wheel, we prefer to gently turn the rudder to steer the ship in the right direction.
We still believe that the measures taken above are sufficient to return to profitability in CHF worthy of the name in the medium term. We are convinced that the CHF will gradually stabilize, then lose its luster to the detriment of the euro and the dollar. Indeed, while the US and European governments will be increasingly forced to take austerity measures to meet market demands, the Swiss government will also have to take emergency measures with regard to its exporting companies that are at the end of their rope. Lonza and Von Roll have just adopted drastic measures (increase in working hours violating the collective labor agreement for the former and payment of cross-border staff in euros for the latter).
Even if we believe in a future decline of the CHF against other currencies, we could also be wrong. For this reason, and since we absolutely want our performance to have the lowest possible correlation with currency fluctuations, and to a certain extent also with the stock market, we have decided to create a new strategy, completing that of the "Global Dividend Growers".
The idea is to invest in profitable Swiss SMEs, with little exposure to exchange rate risk, little debt and an attractive valuation. They pay a dividend, but unlike our strategy "Global Dividend Growers"This does not necessarily increase every year. Our first purchase is Pax-Anlage, which we will tell you about tomorrow.
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Good morning,
I would like to leave you a comment regarding your opinion on the CHF compared to the $ and the €.
Indeed, even if in the short term, the CHF loses some of its "vigour" (although I doubt it), in the medium/long term, it will continue its appreciation against currencies as weak and unsafe as the $ and the €. These continents are so indebted and so badly managed by incapable and corrupt politicians, that they are heading for disaster!
So you have every interest in protecting yourself against the exchange rate.
Perhaps you could also consider investing in Australian, Brazilian or Chinese companies for example?
100% agree with what you are saying. I also talk about it in a previous article (http://www.dividendes.ch/2011/07/bilan-du-1er-semestre-2011-les-politiques-reprennent-le-pouvoir/), both for the strength of the CHF over a longer term horizon because of irresponsible states, and for the possibility of investing in emerging countries (like China or Brazil). The only problem for the latter as far as I'm concerned is the volatility of their markets as a whole, which does not correspond to my risk tolerance. But it's true that that doesn't prevent you from betting on less volatile stocks... something to think about! Thank you for your enlightened comment.