[Jerome]

But doesn't a company whose turnover is divided by 2 or 3 from one year to the next represent a risk for the future?

yes of course, but you are already monitoring the increase in FCF and net income… there may be a drop in the figure, combined with a drop in equivalent expenses which therefore does not impact the final result

of course your criteria hold up, but by being too selective, we miss good opportunities... and let's not forget that other guys like you have already tapped on screeners using the same criteria...

(I have absolutely no mastery of fundamental analysis, I'm feeling my way here and there).

all the more reason to focus on the criteria you feel most comfortable with… I’m not an accountant either, there’s no need to be an expert to invest, just to have a rigorous method, which suits us, and to apply it well

If you already take into account the distribution ratio and the yield, you don't need the PER, because 

PER = distribution ratio / yield

I don't like the P/S too much... doesn't seem very reliable to me, some bad experiences in the past

I prefer the P/B, more reliable, and also usable for a dividend-oriented investment… certain stocks of my EX-US strategy were selected in particular by this means

EBITDA is not a ratio, it is an absolute figure, hardly usable as such in my opinion

[Jerome]

At the time I followed some Belgian stocks, but nothing more now. I would like to add some to the EX-US.

When you have finished your list I will review the titles to see if I can add any to this strategy.

[Jerome]

As far as I'm concerned, your criteria are more than sufficient. There may even be a few too many already... It's better to focus on a few that you know well rather than spreading yourself too thin. Not sure that increasing your turnover really brings anything. I quite like the contrarian side, but be careful, sometimes the price is low for very good reasons.

[Jerome]

Hello à tous

je commence par répondre via ce post

Ensuite, ce qu’il manque dans les éléments soulevés par Harmonie Gestion ce sont :

• Le réinvestissement des dividendes qui vient s’ajouter à la capacité d’épargne. Au début les montants sont petits mais par la suite les dividendes deviennent un élément crucial du revenu global, et donc de la capacité d’épargne.
• La capacité d’épargne. Elle est importante non seulement pour se construire un capital, mais aussi, et surtout, pour le futur, lorsque l’on passe du stade d’accumulation au stade de rente. En effet, en vivant avec moins, on a besoin de nettement moins de rente, donc de capital. J’en parle dans mon e-book.
• La croissance des dividendes.7% est correct certes, mais on peut attendre 10% sans prendre de risques.
• Enfin, il n’y a pas une dichotomie de l’indépendance financière. On ne passe pas forcément d’actif à 100% à rentier à 100%. Cette vision faussée de la réalité nous vient de la retraite traditionnelle où tout s’arrête du jour au lendemain. L’indépendance financière au contraire est un long chemin, lors duquel nous apprenons à devenir de moins en moins dépendant d’un patron qui use notre énergie en échange d’une contrepartie financière. Bref on cherche à sortir de la Rat Race progressivement. Cela peut se faire par le choix d’une activité moins exigeante en termes de responsabilités, une activité à temps partiel ou une profession indépendante. Il y a plusieurs combinaisons possibles et on n’est pas obligé de tout cesser immédiatement. C’est non seulement plus difficile et plus long à réaliser, mais ce n’est surtout pas forcément souhaitable pour le bien être physique et psychique. Ce chemin de l’indépendance financière est le thème central de mon e-book. 

[Jerome]

low-payout securities that distribute little... so increasing dividends, in other words

dividends-price-earnings, the three are closely linked of course, profits being at the origin of the whole system

some Ex-US Swiss companies, which we have already discussed, have low payouts, I am thinking in particular of:

• PAXN
• EMMN
• BELL
• JFN
• SCHN
• RO

[Jerome]

Hello and welcome to the forum

I actually remember this nickname "krasnaya" 

I don't know Belgian stocks very well, even though I was interested in Duvel which is unfortunately no longer listed on the stock exchange.

Regarding Colruyt, I'll give you the analysis of Thierry, an investor and blogger friend who also makes a few appearances here: http://cervininvest.blogspot.ch/2013/01/colruyt-belgique-colr.html

100 to 200 euros may not seem like much, but you have to start there... I did the same as you at the beginning. And that's how you gradually increase your passive income, unless you win the lottery... and then as you say, you're lucky not to pay too much commission. Later on, the commission fees become less important, because we make fewer purchases, but bigger ones, and it's the custody fees that we have to watch. But we're not there yet.

Good luck to you in any case. 

[Jerome]

Yes, that's true, or else you go straight to the stage of rentier

[Jerome]

Be careful not to compare all of Switzerland to Geneva. In the other French-speaking cantons, and in Valais in particular, the cost of living is significantly lower (housing, insurance, daily life, etc.) while maintaining salary levels that are certainly lower than on the Lake Geneva Riviera, but which are still incomparable to what is found in neighboring France.

[Jerome]

Hi Pat

here are my answers

 

a) Bell (Swiss meat): the title has increased a lot since 2011, + 43 % in 1 year!

yes, but the fundamentals followed. I really like this defensive value with a dominant position in Switzerland. And then the meat…mmmhhhh there’s nothing like it. Just a shame that the grilling season is behind us

b) Emmi (Swiss milk): + 10% for 1 year, 60% for 3 years….

also a nice defensive value with a dominant position, but it's true that the prices got a little too excited there... besides it's been correcting a little downwards for some time... to watch to possibly take advantage of it 

c) Jungfraubahn holding (cable car in the Bernese Oberland): Oh, I like this stock! Which is a mistake for a novice investor (Graham)! But hey, it has not increased much.

Indeed it is a title that has everything to please, a majestic place with above all a sacred monopoly of situation

the title is still quite interesting from the point of view of its valuation, with a low beta, therefore interesting when the market is high...

d) Pax Antage (Construction): no liquidity, entry ticket at more than 2000 CHF per share…

Not very liquid, certainly, but also not very volatile and not very influenced by the market... nothing to do a priori with JFN, but quite similar in its behavior. The title is not expensive either, even if you have to pay CHF 1000 for a share (and not 2000). I like this title which diversifies my portfolio well.

Otherwise, there will be Roche, Nestlé, Zurich Assurances, maybe Swatch….but there I am not too worried…

My favorites here are Zurich and Nestlé, to which I also add Swisscom… these are three stocks that I am monitoring for a future purchase

[Jerome]

Bravo Copycat! One year free subscription

everyone underestimated the performance of the SMI… 

see you for a next competition

[Jerome]

I answer for CS REF which I have owned for a very long time, and which I know well. I even took a ladle of it back around 190, taking advantage of the last nice drop. It is a nice yield value, quite easy to play contrarian and a good way to diversify a dividend-equity portfolio. It has risen well recently, but in the long term I think it remains a good investment.

[Jerome]

Hello neighbor Haut Savoyard. It's nice to have a new participant on the forum! It's a nice concern to have to manage your wife's millions

 

[Jerome]

This is a risk that should not be overlooked when investing in dividends. Especially since the best growing dividends are on the other side of the Atlantic and the dollar is a structurally weak currency. I talk about it at length on my blog. 

I recommend starting by reading this series of 4 articles: http://www.dividendes.ch/2011/12/actions-en-devises-etrangeres-et-risque-de-monnaie-12/

The loss of capital is already painful, but if the income also drops, it becomes downright annoying. 

For this reason, it is advisable to invest in stocks that react favorably to a fall in the dollar. And there are many of them!

In my 4 investment strategies I am constantly analyzing this criterion, under the name of $risk.

To answer the question "how low" more precisely... the dollar is bottomless! And the Fed is doing nothing to strengthen it, quite the contrary. But as long as companies can benefit from a weak dollar, then they will make profits and increase their dividends, more than enough to cover the decline caused by the currency. 

And then of course you also have to place your pawns in other dividend-paying stocks, outside the dollar zone. My EX-US strategy offers a whole series of them.

Finally, we can also take advantage of the fall of the dollar to make purchases at a good price.

[Jerome]

I have to say that I have a hard time following this company's policy, first they do a spin-off by lowering the dividend, then they massively increase it a year later. I don't like instability and in this case they are doing quite well. Normally I would sell, and God knows if I am for sticking to my principles. But this hurts because it is a beautiful company, a former aristocrat who should have remained one...

[Jerome]

Abbott announced a 57% increase of its dividend to $0.22 per quarter.

Abbott beat both analysts' expectations and its own projections for earnings. The company reported third-quarter adjusted diluted earnings of $0.55 per share. That's higher than it had previously guided and handily surpassed the average analysts' estimate of $0.51 per share.

Abbott reported a third-quarter adjusted gross margin ratio of 55.9% and an adjusted operating margin ratio of 19.3%. Both reflected solid improvement over the prior year and beat earlier expectations.

 

This changes things a bit. +6.3%.

To be continued. But that doesn't change the fact that the title is no longer in line with the Global Dividend Growers.

[Author]

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