Exchange rate

[DSwissK]

<p style=" »text-align:" left; »>Good morning,</p>
 

I have some cash positions in USD and EUR that I want to change to CHF by the end of the year (in order to close my relationship with swissquote).

 

Do you think that I will soon find a more favorable rate or that, on the contrary, the CHF will continue to strengthen until December?

 

I think US interest rates will slowly rise but I don't know what impact that would have on rates.

 

Thank you for your inputs.

[Jerome]

I am not a Forex expert. In fact, I have often thought that it is more like a lottery than anything else.

However, USD/CHF is in an uptrend, but is soon reaching a resistance zone, slightly above 1. So soon time to sell I think, unless the resistance zone is broken.

For EUR/CHF it is the opposite. Bearish phase, but arrives in a support zone around 1.145. So I would wait a little to see. If it rebounds, we hold and sell at 1.17. Otherwise if it breaks the support zone of 1.145, we sell.

[DSwissK]

Thank you for your quick response.

 
<p style=" »text-align:" left; »>Along the same lines, on interactive brokers, do you convert your CHF to USD/yen/EUR to avoid interest or do you stay in CHF to minimize exposure to exchange rate risks?</p>

[Jerome]

I chose to convert. I don't do it systematically, but from time to time I look at my negative positions in other currencies and if I think I can trade at a good price on the forex the corresponding currencies, I take positions in order to go positive, and avoid interest.

Interests are certain, capital losses not necessarily... at least that's my point of view. As already mentioned several times on my blog, I think that by focusing too much on the exchange rate risk we forget the most important thing.... Research also proves that it is not a primary aspect. On the contrary, the biggest mistake is to remain invested only in the domestic currency.

[Author]

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