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Good morning,
I purchased the ebook and subsequently subscribed to the site because I really appreciated the philosophy presented.
Without going into details, because that will not add anything to the forum, I will present my project to you in a few words:
In 3 to 4 years, reduce my working time from full time to 4/5ths, in order to be able to better develop a personal project, which is currently a hobby but which I hope to professionalize little by little.
In addition to this, I would like to build a solid and decent stock portfolio, bringing me regular dividends, and why not from time to time a capital gain following the resale of shares.
I could put in barely 100 to 200 euros per month for the next 2 years, since I also have to develop the activity that I dream of one day becoming my main income. So that the transaction fees do not weigh too heavily in the balance, I opened a securities account with Bourse Direct: 0.99 euros per order, who can beat that?
I am thinking of combining the growing dividend method with a purchase at the 52-week low, with reinforcement in the event of a 10% drop in price.
If I registered on this forum, it is because I am a beginner, and I do not master fundamental analysis very well... I am therefore looking for advice and criticism.
Being Belgian, I would like to first select Belgian stocks, then head off to other climes in search of these famous “Dividend Aristocrats”.
To start, here are 3 Belgian stocks in my sights:
Cofinimmo, Befimmo and Belgacom.
They are not necessarily payers of growing dividends, but they seem to me to be very good payers, and if they are bought at a good price, it can be interesting.
I then targeted Colruyt, based on the screener of the site "becoming a rentier", the fundamental analyses of Binckbank (I opened an account there a few years ago, I only use it for my research now), and on the data available on the Echo.be site (free version, so I don't have all the information):
On the Happy Investor website I can see that Colruyt, between 2010 and 2013:
Increases its turnover, its free cash flow, its net profit every year.
That the distribution ratio decreases each year to reach 37% in 2013.
On echo.be, I see that:
His beta is < 1 We are halfway between the 52-week high and low. On Binck: Its dividend has been growing from 2011 to 2013, and the 2014 to 2016 forecasts are also growing. I think I will buy at around 34-35 euros, which would be very close to the 52-week low. So my question is: What do you think of this beginner's analysis? What did I forget? What points need to be reviewed? Thanks!! PS I had registered under another pseudonym 1 year ago (krasnaya) but after buying the ebook, I registered as a member under this pseudonym... sorry for this confusion...
Hello and welcome to the forum
I actually remember this nickname "krasnaya"
I don't know Belgian stocks very well, even though I was interested in Duvel which is unfortunately no longer listed on the stock exchange.
Regarding Colruyt, I'll give you the analysis of Thierry, an investor and blogger friend who also makes a few appearances here: http://cervininvest.blogspot.ch/2013/01/colruyt-belgique-colr.html
100 to 200 euros may not seem like much, but you have to start there... I did the same as you at the beginning. And that's how you gradually increase your passive income, unless you win the lottery... and then as you say, you're lucky not to pay too much commission. Later on, the commission fees become less important, because we make fewer purchases, but bigger ones, and it's the custody fees that we have to watch. But we're not there yet.
Good luck to you in any case.
Good morning,
Bourse Direct is a good choice, the fees are reduced to a minimum and it is low cost but which suits the investor who gets involved by himself.
I advise you to read all the books on the Happy Investor website (except Rich Dad, Poor Dad, a nameless load of rubbish). You can also take an interest in the website of your compatriots Les Daubasses, for an investment in value.
I have no opinion on your Belgian shares, but don't forget that you should never invest based on sentimental criteria! I know what I'm talking about, I lost a lot of money when I started with Club Med, a company where I spent many holidays with my parents, and which was a financial disaster for me...
Belgian shares: consume in moderation.
Good evening,
I have no sentimental criteria in my future stock choices.
If I am looking at Belgian stocks as a priority, it is because of the taxation on dividends.
25% for Belgium, + national taxes, this means that as soon as I leave Belgium, the dividends are taxed at more than 40%…
My first selections will therefore be based on:
– dividends (increasing if possible),
– max distribution ratio of 60%,
– increase in turnover,
– increase in free cash flow,
– increase in net profit
– beta <1
– close to the 52-week low.
What do you think about these criteria? Should I add anything?
By these criteria, I also spotted AB Inbev, with the only flaw being a beta of 1.4 and we are quite far from the 52-week low.
Also Elia, but whose Free Cash Flow decreased in 2012…
I have reached the letter "E" of the Bel 20 shares, then I will move on to the other Belgian shares.
Colruyt lost 3% today
As far as I'm concerned, your criteria are more than sufficient. There may even be a few too many already... It's better to focus on a few that you know well rather than spreading yourself too thin. Not sure that increasing your turnover really brings anything. I quite like the contrarian side, but be careful, sometimes the price is low for very good reasons.
Be careful, it seems logical to me that when the indices are going crazy, you absolutely have to be wary of a stock that is at its 52-week low.
On the other hand, it seems correct to me to capitalize during bullish phases, and to do your shopping during correction phases.
So, if 3/4 of the Bel20 stocks are close to the low, it is time to buy the selected stocks.
I have made some more progress, for the moment I have:
Inbev, Colruyt, Elia, GBL and Solvay.
Good evening!
At the time I followed some Belgian stocks, but nothing more now. I would like to add some to the EX-US.
When you have finished your list I will review the titles to see if I can add any to this strategy.
Ok, so I can remove the revenue increase element.
But doesn't a company whose turnover is divided by 2 or 3 from one year to the next represent a risk for the future?
(I have absolutely no mastery of fundamental analysis, I'm feeling my way here and there).
I understand the importance of the distribution ratio very well, I still have to study the rest.
Among my criteria, are there any that are superfluous? Or should they be replaced by more effective ones?
With a view to increasing dividends, what about PER, p/b, p/s, ev/ebitda etc? Useless?
THANKS!
But doesn't a company whose turnover is divided by 2 or 3 from one year to the next represent a risk for the future?
yes of course, but you are already monitoring the increase in FCF and net income… there may be a drop in the figure, combined with a drop in equivalent expenses which therefore does not impact the final result
of course your criteria hold up, but by being too selective, we miss good opportunities... and let's not forget that other guys like you have already tapped on screeners using the same criteria...
(I have absolutely no mastery of fundamental analysis, I'm feeling my way here and there).
all the more reason to focus on the criteria you feel most comfortable with… I’m not an accountant either, there’s no need to be an expert to invest, just to have a rigorous method, which suits us, and to apply it well
If you already take into account the distribution ratio and the yield, you don't need the PER, because
PER = distribution ratio / yield
I don't like the P/S too much... doesn't seem very reliable to me, some bad experiences in the past
I prefer the P/B, more reliable, and also usable for a dividend-oriented investment… certain stocks of my EX-US strategy were selected in particular by this means
EBITDA is not a ratio, it is an absolute figure, hardly usable as such in my opinion
Good morning,
EBITDA is not a ratio, but "EV/EBITDA" is. I have read here and there that it is more reliable than PER, on the "Becoming a Rentier" website I think, in one of the Newsletters.
From a purely value "stock picking" perspective, it seems to me that we should choose companies with an EV/EBITDA lower than 8. But I don't know if this is useful from a growing dividend perspective.
What criteria do you use for P/B?
PS: it is very hard to connect to the forum, yesterday it was impossible.
The forum "log in" function is not working.
I have to go through one of your strategies, register as a member, enter my login and password, and only then can I come to the forum... It works every other time. And whether it's on my private PC or my professional PC, it's the same thing...
EBITDA is not a ratio, but "EV/EBITDA" is. I have read here and there that it is more reliable than PER, on the "Becoming a Rentier" website I think, in one of the Newsletters.
Sorry, I didn't read it well.
From a purely value "stock picking" perspective, it seems to me that we should choose companies with an EV/EBITDA lower than 8. But I don't know if this is useful from a growing dividend perspective.
never tried, as already mentioned I prefer to focus on what I master best
What criteria do you use for P/B?
One of my screeners to detect dividend stocks used a filter with P/B < 1.3
combined with other criteria it gave me a big list of stocks to which I then applied my usual indicators of growing dividends.
The forum "log in" function is not working.
I found the bug, and it's probably fixed now... thanks for reporting it to me
Indeed, it works now.
My current watch list:
Inbev
Elia
GBL
Solvay
Pernod Ricard
BIC
Casino GP
Danone
L'Oreal
Boiron
Air Liquide
Shopping (I'll put my wallet on the forum)
Colruyt (halfway between 52-week high and low)
Unilever (near 52s low)
I expect us to get close to the 52-week low. I think I'm less severe for Belgian stocks: to be halfway between the high and the low (which is the case for Colruyt).
Added to my watch list:
Wolters Kluwer: Revenue, FCF, Net income increasing. 20% payout ratio. Dividends for the past 3 years increasing, and estimated 2014 and 2015 dividends increasing. 2013 dividend of 3.38%, beta of 0.81.
On the other hand, is at its 52-week highs. With such ratios, I think I'll be happy with a "halfway" between + highs and + lows.
Good day!
PS: Yes, 100% European at first, because I will buy in 100-150 euros to start. With fees of 8-9 euros for US stocks, this is too big a percentage.
When I have a good basic portfolio, I could space out my purchases to approach the US market (like buying 400 euros at a time)
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