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Hello everyone
the market is very high, the US market capitalization to US GDP ratio having exceeded 100%. For this reason I propose you a little game
The goal is to compose a small portfolio composed only of stocks, 5 in total, from any country, and which are supposed to resist a bear market well (or even to benefit from it). Each stock must have a brief explanation justifying its choice.
Deadline: September 30, 2012
The winner will receive my e-book for free "Rentier profession". I will try to remain as objective as possible in my judgment based on criteria such as volatility, sector of activity, solidity of dividends… But inevitably my final choice will include a bit of subjectivity… I apologize in advance.
Not an easy exercise, the market being already relatively high.
Come on, I'm going:
1) Kinder Morgan Partners – as I mentioned in my portfolio, this pipeline company charges its customers (the oil majors) a certain price for each barrel that passes through its pipes. This is a business model that is extremely resistant to economic conditions and fluctuations in the price of a barrel. The company increases its dividends year after year
2) Francois Freres Cooperage – a producer of barrels for wineries and distilleries. Instead of investing in Diageo or Pernod Ricard, which have had a great stock market performance, I prefer to invest in this small stock that still has potential and should not suffer too much during a recession (people drink more during a crisis… at least they don’t drink less)
3) Pro Share Ultra Gold (UGL) – this ETF has gold bullion as its underlying asset but has the particularity that the daily price of this ETF varies twice as much as the price of the underlying asset. This position is certainly the most speculative of the 5 values. I am not a fan of gold but my reasoning is that gold could increase again with inflationary fears and the end of the world looming (again). As it is only a game, there is no problem entering this position, but in reality I could very well burn my fingers here
4) IVF Hartmann – Small Swiss company unknown to the general public which manufactures medical products such as dressings (under the brand Dermaplast). Small cap with very little liquidity, “under the radar” (as I like them) and which should withstand a weak economic situation.
5) Vinci – the value is under pressure at the moment for fear that the French government will take a little more money under motorway concessions. Even if this happens, the car park and concessions model generates a huge cash flow.
Come on, come on, ladies and gentlemen!
A little effort…you’re not going to let me win by default, are you?!?
No, it's shameful to win by default.
I'm getting into it too.The figures are the evolution over 4 years except for Orpéa (3 years).
Aqua America
Company that manages water in the eastern United States.Everyone needs water even in times of crisis.
Numbers:
Beta: 0.2
CA: +4,00%
Operating cash flow: +19.001TP3Q
Investment: +7,00%
Free cash flow: +4,00%
Net result: +14.00%
Dividends: +8,00%
Payout ratio: 63%
Long term debts: +4,00%
Treasury: +4,00%
Equity: +6,00%Newcrest Mining
Gold exploration and production mining company in Australia.As everyone knows, gold is a safe haven.
Numbers :
Beta: 0.5
CA: +21,00%
Operating cash flow: +20.001TP3Q
Investment: +87,00%
Free cash flow: -47,00%
Net result: +91.00%
Dividends: +134.00%
Payout ratio: 39%
Long term debts: +35,00%
Treasury: +126.00%
Equity: +75,00%JM Smucker
Manufacturer of everyday consumer products: oils, jams, flour, baking ingredients, juices and drinks, desserts, pastry products, condiments.
No one is going to cut back on their breakfast in times of crisis a prioriNumbers:
Beta: 0.6
CA: +14,00%
Operating cash flow: +34.001TP3Q
Investment: +37,00%
Free cash flow: +41,00%
Net result: +26,00%
Dividends: +26,00%
Payout ratio: 41%
Long term debts: +26,00%
Treasury: -17,00%Equity: +2,00%
Orpea
Retirement homes. Services supporting dependent people at all stages.There is no reason to have fewer elderly people during a crisis.
Numbers:
Beta: 0.6
CA: +37,00% Over 3 years
Operating cash flow: +35,001TP3Q
Investment: +10,00%
Free cash flow: +0
Net result: +19,00%
Dividends?
Payout ratio: +25%
Long term debts: +41,00%
Treasury: +420.00%
Equity: +65Diageo
Producer of wines and spirits.
People will naturally turn to alcohol to forget their worries.Numbers:
Beta: 0.5
CA 7,00%
Operating cash flow: +12,001TP3Q
Investment: +6,00%
Free cash flow: +14,00%
Net result: +8.00%
Dividends: +4,00%
Payout ratio: 55%
Long term debts: +4,00%
Treasury: +32,00%
Equity: +14,00%Good morning
I'm startingNestle: well, how to say, you know better than me ;)
Pernod-Ricard: I have confidence in the French to continue drinking, and given the margins (real, not published) of the group...
Chevron: good oil never disappoints, I refrained from including 5 oil companies
Johnson&Johnson: crisis, hygiene, malnutrition, illness, care, medication (Roche also tempted me, but I didn't want to flatter you too much)
Unilever: for the extent of its sectors, the sum of P&G and Kellogg (almost ; ) it cannot sinkWell now we really need a big crisis to decide between us : )))
Have a good day
Good evening everyone,
Here is my portfolio for the anti crash contest:
1. Nestlé (SWX: NESN), world leader in agri-food. The company, seeing that Europe is sagging, is actively moving towards emerging countries. For a shareholder in the euro zone, it is a stock to put at the bottom of the portfolio due to the high value of the Swiss franc. Other strong points: dividend increasing year after year and reputation of its brands (Nespresso, Nesquik, Buitoni, Perrier, etc.).
2. McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), leader in fast food restaurants. In its domestic market, the company is struggling but remains the leader despite Burger King, Subway and Mexican restaurants. However, it has a dominant position in Europe and emerging countries by adapting to the national culinary tradition. Other strong points are the reputation of its menus, whose prices are very low, and its transgenerational character.
3. Gold Bullion Securities (GBS). This is a tracker that tracks the variation in the price of an ounce of gold in euros. Why this choice? Its safe haven character in times of crisis, inflation or deflation.
4. Potash Corp (NYSE: POT), a company specializing in agricultural commodities, particularly potash. This choice is justified by population growth. To put it simply, I do "top down" stock picking, that is, investing based on tomorrow's macroeconomic trends.
5. Alamos Gold (TSX: AGI), a gold mining company with projects in Mexico and Turkey. Benefit from the leverage effect of the gold price per ounce, which I don't see collapsing anytime soon.
Sincerely.
Well, there are some great things coming up. The choice will be difficult but I already have my little idea. There are still a little less than 4 hours left for the last participants to present their portfolios. I will give my verdict during the week.
First of all, my congratulations to the participants. You all understood the meaning of the approach and your proposals all make sense. Nevertheless, one of the participants stood out by almost perfectly fulfilling all the criteria that were set.
Let's take the wallets in order:
– Birdie : Very good choice. I particularly like TFF and IVF Hartmann. The latter is even, in my opinion, the best choice among the stocks in all the portfolios. Unfortunately, with UGL, you did not completely respect the given criteria, which only specified stocks. Too bad because the portfolio is not only original but above all of quality and I have no doubt that it offers good resistance to a bear market.
– Arnaud : Excellent choice. I particularly like WTR, which I know well and which is a stock that is particularly good at resisting bear markets. I also like NCM, SJM and of course DEO, which I also know well. There are original titles and you detail the important criteria well.
– Clero : good choice. I particularly remember JNJ and NESN which resist well to turbulent waters, and which I also know well. Too bad your explanations are a little brief. The portfolio is good overall, even if a little less original than that of the other participants.
– Sovanna : Very good choice. I particularly remember NESN and MCD. But as for Birdie, you did not completely respect the criteria requested with GBS. Too bad because your portfolio is original and well detailed.In the end, I chose Arnaud, who respected all the criteria, detailed his choice well, used original titles that all offer, in my opinion, good protection against a bear market. Arnaud, you will receive my e-book very soon. Congratulations!
For the rest of you, sorry, maybe it's for another time. As a consolation, I've gathered what I consider to be your top picks into a portfolio of nine stocks:
1) François Frères Cooperage
2) IVF Hartmann
3) WTR
4) Newcrest Mining
5) SJM
6) DEO
7) JNJ
NESN
9) MCDMaybe this anti-crash wallet will come in handy this October…
First of all, congratulations to the winner and a big well done
to all competitors!!!Rereading the competition announcement, it's true that you say "composed solely of actions"... that reminds me
bad memories of tests at school (or college) where I obviously read wrong...who knows...maybe I failed
a brilliant academic career…:-)Well, otherwise between Clero's hyper conservative and classic portfolio (which is likely to gain in real terms in the event of a very strong correction) and Sovanna's less defensive portfolio (because of potassium and gold), there is Arnaud and myself.
Maybe you put together the best of the 4 of us. If there is a correction from 10-20% in the last quarter, I will be curious to see how these 4 portfolios perform vs. your hybrid selection.
Yeeeeeeeee
Thank you so much.
Thanks also to the other participants thanks to whom I discovered other values not necessarily known (at least by me)
)Rereading the competition announcement, it's true that you say "composed solely of actions"... that reminds me
bad memories of tests at school (or college) where I obviously read wrong...who knows...maybe I failed
a brilliant academic career…:-)Ah, it's true that these school tests often had traps, but that wasn't the point.
Maybe you put together the best of the 4 of us. If there is a correction from 10-20% in the last quarter, I will be curious to see how these 4 portfolios perform vs. your hybrid selection.
Only the market can tell us that!
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