My wallet is in hibernation mode

So, winter has officially begun. The nights are long and the weather is gloomy. On the stock market side, things have cooled down a lot too. The Dow Jones is on track for its worst December since... 1931! Well, it must be said that all this is quite normal. I would even say that it was predictable. When you see that the big American companies have been listed on average, up to more than 3.5 times their book value, there was really something to put us on our guard. Despite the decline in recent months, they are still worth three times their book value on average, which means that there is still a way to go before they become accessible again, or less than 1.8 times their book value on average. Put more simply, large American companies as a whole, during last summer, were just twice too expensive!

Pourtant, elles sont parties de tellement bas en 2009. C'est là qu'on mesure à la fois l'effet de rattrapage sur les blue-chips bradées à l'époque, la force de frappe de la Fed avec l'injection massive de liquidités et la folle fuite en avant court-termiste suite à l'élection de Trump, avec la baisse des taxes et les mesures protectionnistes.

The cicada that sang all summer found itself very destitute when the north wind came. The recent corrections on the American indices suggest very bad omens for these stocks that were boasting not long ago. From a technical point of view, the S&P 500 is drawing a head-and-shoulders pattern, whose support has been broken. From a fundamental point of view, as we have already said, valuations are still extreme. From an economic point of view, protectionist measures have never created wealth in the long term and tax cuts risk causing more problems in the long term than they have an effect on an already overheating economy. Not to mention the rates on 10-year US Treasury bonds which, despite a small correction over the last month, seem to be moving towards a long-term upward trend since the middle of this year, whereas they have done almost nothing but fall since 1981.

L'hiver est donc là, tout juste devant notre porte. Les animaux ont fait le plein de nourriture et hibernent, en attendant des jours meilleurs. Pour mon portefeuille, c'est pareil. Il est à 50% composé de cash, à 15% d'real estate, le tiers restant étant réparti entre quelques blue-chips et valeurs défensives. Tout prochainement un peu d'or fera aussi certainement sa réapparition. Histoire de passer l'hiver au chaud.