Quand on investit dans des devises étrangères on court le risque d'essuyer des pertes non pas seulement à cause de l'actif lui-même, mais aussi parce la devise dans laquelle on a placé son argent peut perdre de sa valeur. Le dollar est un exemple classique de ce phénomène puisque sa valeur est passée de 4.3 CHF pour 1 USD en 1970 à la presque parité aujourd'hui. On serait encore plus bas sans la fixation du taux plancher avec l'euro par la Bank Nationale Suisse en 2011. Même en investissant dans sa propre monnaie on n'est pas à l'abri de perdre de l'argent rien que par la perte de valeur induite par l'inflation. Aussi, de nombreux investisseurs placent une partie de leurs avoirs dans l'or, ce qui leur permet de s'affranchir du risque de change en même temps que de celui de l'inflation. D'autres investisseurs transitent par le Forex pour couvrir leurs positions.
I don't like Forex or gold. Both have a very strong speculative connotation, especially the yellow metal. Indeed, if a currency is based on the fundamentals of the country(ies) that host it, gold is based on nothing other than supply and demand. Gold is inert, it does not create any wealth, it is only exchanged at prices that differ over time. It is only based on the perception of value that sellers and buyers have of it. If, for one reason or another, investors' feelings change towards the yellow metal, its price can suddenly change and this movement can be almost endless since there is no real basis that can justify its value.
Shares, on the other hand, do indeed have a quantifiable intrinsic value, independent of any investor feelings. In addition, they create value over time, thanks to the work provided by management and especially employees of companies. Part of this value created goes to employees, another part remains in the hands of the company, another part goes to the State and finally another part comes back to us, shareholders.
Fortunately, there are companies that generate a very significant portion of their turnover abroad. The shares of these companies have the very interesting characteristic of hedging themselves against exchange rate risk. Indeed, if their currency falls, the company's fixed costs generated by the headquarters become relatively less significant compared to the selling price of the product/service in other countries. At the same time, the cash inflows made in foreign currencies become relatively more significant. Or it is the price of the good/product that falls, thereby boosting exports.
J'ai sélectionné ci-dessous quatre entreprises américaines payant des growing dividends et qui excellent tout particulièrement dans l'art de se couvrir d'elles-mêmes contre le risque de monnaie.
Clorox (NYSE:CLX), a cleaning products maker, generates only 20% of its revenue from international markets. Despite its attempts to become a more global company, Clorox is still heavily dependent on the slow growth of the North American market. While the falling dollar may boost its exports somewhat, the cost of raw materials purchased in foreign currencies increases with the falling dollar. However, to address this issue, CLX uses financial instruments to hedge against the risks of foreign currency volatility, which has a significant impact on the stock price. Clorox thus has a $risk of -0.9, which means that the security offers almost perfect protection against the risk inherent in its own currency.
McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) generates two-thirds of its revenue abroad. As a result, when the greenback falls, the value of a Big Mac sold outside the United States rises when consolidated in dollars. The $risk of MCD, avec -0.79, confirme que la plus célèbre chaîne de fast-food au monde se régale lorsque le dollar s'affaiblit.
IBM (NYSE:IBM) is doing almost as well as MCD with 60% of its turnover generated outside the United States. The $risk of -0.75 confirms that IBM appreciates a weak dollar, thereby offering good protection against the greenback.
Sigma-Aldrich (NASDAQ:SIAL), a manufacturer of equipment for biological and chemical scientific research, has the distinction of generating 3/4 of its turnover internationally, which is quite prodigious. $risk of -0.73 indicates that the company responds very favorably to a fall in the dollar.
These four stocks allow you to invest in proven dividend-growing payers, found only in the United States, without having to worry about currency risk and without having to use financial gimmicks to hedge against it. Isn't life wonderful?
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Good evening,
You seem very critical of gold. However, unlike paper currencies and stocks, the yellow metal has no counterpart, that is to say it is not dependent on the responsibility of someone (State or company). To put it simply, gold is safe from default, devaluation or depreciation. Hence its status as a safe haven.
I suggest you consult the 24h Gold site in French or English to see that the price of an ounce of gold rises regardless of the paper currency, so it protects well against the monetary war.
Hi Sovanna, it's true I'm critical of gold. I don't dispute its protective role against the policy of printing money. There I can understand those who use it in this perspective. But as I said gold is static. It of course has the advantage of protecting when currencies devalue, but conversely it doesn't create wealth... it only preserves it. Of course you can make money by speculating on it and those who have benefited from it since 2000 are blessed but as far as I'm concerned I'm not comfortable with this approach.
Good morning,
I am a little surprised by the choice of 4 American values, the $ presents an exchange rate risk and if in the short term the $ appreciates against the € in the longer term it should be the opposite and as far as I know the CHF is more linked to the € than to the $.
On the other hand, European companies distribute more dividends than American ones.
Is the choice to invest mainly in American companies a choice linked to tax reasons, access to information, etc.?
Hello, that's a good point Patrick. Believe me, I am aware of the exchange rate risk linked to the dollar, especially in the long term. I even make it one of my priorities. However, the shortcut American value = risk linked to the dollar cannot be done systematically and that's very good. In this globalized world, no company is safe from what happens outside its borders, even those that do not export. Conversely, an exporting company can free itself from the risk linked to its own currency (or benefit from it) by developing its activities abroad.
I thought for a long time how I could hedge my portfolio against exchange rate risk, mainly that linked to the dollar. After much research, I came to the conclusion that it was certainly necessary to diversify currencies, but above all that it was necessary to see how the stock reacted when its currency varied. The value of stocks like Clorox in CHF thus displays a negative correlation to the dollar equivalent to that of Nestlé! Companies whose turnover is mainly generated abroad, and/or which are active in raw materials, have this interesting characteristic.
It is true that European companies distribute more dividends. Unfortunately, this is done precisely to the detriment of a distribution ratio that is too high. The sustainability of this dividend is therefore not assured. As I mention at length on my blog, I prefer average and increasing dividends, with a long history of increases. Unfortunately, the Americans are once again well ahead of the Old Continent on this subject.
Yours sincerely.